“I was told by a couple teams, the only reason they were worried about taking McKenna first is if you don’t have a center who can play with him. Is it going to make it harder [on McKenna]? Toronto doesn’t have that problem,” Elliotte Friedman said on the FAN Hockey Show.

Despite reports suggesting McKenna could slide down from No. 1 and land with the New York Rangers, Vancouver Canucks, or another NHL franchise, it seems all but guaranteed that Toronto will use its first overall selection on the talent out of Whitehorse.

McKenna could be perfect move for Toronto

It feels like the perfect complementary move. Drafting McKenna could put a full stop to the noise surrounding Matthews and a potential trade request out of The Six. At the same time, the Leafs can draft McKenna in a heartbeat because they could line him up on Matthews’ wing and expect superb production right from the get-go.

After all, it may take Toronto less than a year to replace Mitch Marner. The former fourth overall pick in 2015 was traded to Vegas on July 1, 2025, and McKenna will most likely be selected first overall on June 26, 2026, at KeyBank Center. A short trip across Niagara Falls and the US-Canada border would then follow for McKenna as he settles into his new life in Toronto.

Matthews’ contract situation

It all makes perfect sense for the Maple Leafs. However, they can’t overlook Matthews’ situation. McKenna’s arrival may ease the pressure for a while, but it won’t last forever. The end goal is always to win the Stanley Cup—for both Matthews and the Maple Leafs. With every passing NHL season in which both fall short of that goal, the buzz surrounding them will only grow louder.

Toronto is officially on the clock, and the pressure is mounting for the Leafs, too. Matthews is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2028, and he isn’t eligible to sign an extension until July 1, 2027. Thus, the upcoming 2026-27 campaign will be crucial in convincing Matthews that he is in the right place. Maybe McKenna is the X-factor in those conversations.

“There is no player in this Draft that is clear cut, No. 1,” Craig Button said during an appearance on Frankly Hockey. “There just isn’t, in my view. The margins are razor thin.“

If that’s the case, the 2026 NHL Draft could be more of a crapshoot than a sure thing. As a result, the Rangers and Canucks could come away with the most coveted player in the upcoming class—even if he doesn’t end up being selected first overall. The odds may not be in their favor, but both New York and Vancouver know odds can be deceiving. They favored both teams in the Draft Lottery, and everybody knows how that turned out.

Top prospects in 2026 class

Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg are often considered the top—and perhaps only—candidates to be drafted first overall in 2026. However, both are wingers, and that may raise concerns for the Maple Leafs. Centers are more valuable in the NHL, and because of that, a prospect like Caleb Malhotra could be favored by Toronto.

More likely than not, if the Buds settle on Malhotra as “their guy,” they would swap spots on the board with an organization like New York or Vancouver. If the Maple Leafs decide on Stenberg, taking him first overall makes much more sense and wouldn’t be considered nearly as much of a reach—if at all. Still, it would raise eyebrows across Ontario.

Although some Maple Leafs fans have already gone ahead and ordered McKenna jerseys, until the pick is in, anything can happen. It’s no secret the Buds need defensive help more than anything else ahead of the 2026-27 NHL season. If they decide to address that need, prospects like Chase Reid, Carson Carels, and Keaton Verhoeff could all be on their radar.

Leafs could trade down with Rangers, Canucks

The trade route is a very appealing one for the Leafs. If it opens up, the Canucks and Rangers would waste no time sending their offers. Toronto is well aware it could get a king’s ransom—from New York, Vancouver, and even Chicago—to move down a couple of spots. The Maple Leafs may have finished 28th in the league last season, but they are much closer to contention than the Blueshirts, ‘Nucks, and Hawks are. At least on paper they are.

As long as the Leafs have Auston Matthews, they may only be a few pieces away. Those pieces could very well arrive in The Six through a trade involving the No. 1 selection. If they trade down or pass on McKenna, the hardest part to deal with would be the noise within the city. It would follow the Buds through every corner of Toronto.

For John Chayka and Mats Sundin, making such a move just months into their new jobs would certainly send a message. It might even become the kind of decision that lays the foundation for future statues outside Scotiabank Arena—but it could just as easily become the perfect way to speedrun their path to getting fired.

Toronto may not be able to afford such a bet

For Chayka, the stakes are simply too high to take that kind of risk. Even if the organization would rather select Ivar Stenberg, Caleb Malhotra, or a blueliner, drafting McKenna is the only route that won’t have fans lighting torches and marching down Yonge Street calling for their heads.

As things stand, the Maple Leafs hold the fate of the 2026 NHL Draft in their hands. The Rangers and Canucks are behind the eight ball and can only hope to move up the board through a trade. The likelihood of such a move happening depends on who you ask around the league.

Still, for the time being, McKenna is up for grabs. Until the first overall pick is announced at KeyBank Center on June 26, no one can take the beacon of hope away from the Big Apple or Vancity. And who knows? Maybe the entire league is in for a surprise courtesy of the Chayka-Sundin administration in Toronto.

The last time the Maple Leafs drafted first overall? In 2016, when they selected none other than Auston Matthews, who has recently been linked to trade speculation. While drafting McKenna could help change the narrative in Toronto following a rough 2025–26 NHL season, a report suggests the Maple Leafs may still need to show more in order to convince Matthews to stay put.

“Obviously, the first overall pick is a good sign. There’s a lot more that has to happen with respect to [Matthews]. There’s a lot more that has to happen with the Leafs, in terms of what additional moves they’re going to make,” David Pagnotta said during an appearance on Leafs Morning Take. “Across the board, these are all positive signs.”

Maple Leafs have work to do

Not all of the Maple Leafs’ struggles will magically disappear after the 2026 NHL Draft (June 26–27). Some might argue the work is only just beginning for the revamped front office in The Six.

Having a strong free-agency period will be crucial. In the meantime, the Buds will have to keep their heads on a swivel, as a trade request from Matthews could catch them off guard at any moment.

Fortunately for Toronto, four lottery balls made life much easier and allowed the organization to breathe a sigh of relief. If there truly was a serious danger of the captain jumping ship, McKenna appearing on the horizon may have the Maple Leafs shouting, “Land ho!”

Toronto needs more help aside from McKenna

Needless to say, drafting McKenna (or Ivar Stenberg) with the first overall pick would go a long way for the Maple Leafs to bounce back after their 32-36-14 finish in 2025-26. Still, no team that ever finishes in second-to-last place in a conference is just one player away from becoming a Stanley Cup contender. Matthews knows that, so he wants to see his club actually invest to overturn the recent struggles.

Toronto needs help across the board. Trying to convince Maple Leafs fans that drafting McKenna isn’t the right move would be senseless—and probably a lost cause. Still, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the Buds’ biggest need actually lies on the blue line—and not on the wing, where McKenna makes a living.

The Maple Leafs could certainly use a high-end defensive prospect who could eventually join the team’s top pairing at Scotiabank Arena. Perhaps a right-handed defenseman like Chase Reid would be a perfect fit in Toronto. Had the Leafs landed the No. 2 pick, there might be a more serious debate about that possibility. However, with the first overall selection, the odds of them drafting anyone other than McKenna appear extremely low.

Maple Leafs’ prospects

As things stand, Toronto’s top prospects are winger Easton Cowan, right-shot defenseman Ben Danford, and goaltender Dennis Hildeby. The moment the Buds announce their first-round pick at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, that player will immediately jump to the top of the organization’s prospect rankings—whether it’s McKenna or Stenberg, the two most obvious candidates.

Anything can happen, but it appears GM John Chayka and senior executive advisor of hockey operations Mats Sundin won’t overthink the decision and will instead select the player who has long been considered the consensus No. 1 pick.

“Gavin McKenna won’t be on Team Canada’s roster for the Men’s World Championship. A group decision involving Hockey Canada and McKenna’s representatives feel it’s best to focus on the NHL combine,” Darren Dreger of TSN stated on his X account.

What’s more shocking than the fact McKenna won’t represent the Maple Leaf is that it was a mutual decision between the two parties involved. McKenna’s camp and Hockey Canada believe it’s best for the projected No. 1 pick to stay in North America and prepare for the NHL Combine and Draft.

Maple Leafs may have played a role in decision

Although the Toronto Maple Leafs have avoided committing to McKenna, the Buds’ influence may be showing—especially considering Hockey Canada’s management includes former Maple Leafs GMs Brad Treliving and Kyle Dubas, as well as Jason Spezza, who played for Toronto and served as a special assistant to the GM under Dubas back in 2022–23.

Perhaps the Buds had a hand in keeping McKenna on this side of the Atlantic and safe from potential setbacks or injuries while competing against some of the best players in the world. After all, the Maple Leafs are set to pick first overall for the third time in franchise history in 2026, and they aren’t letting anything throw a wrench in the works.

Maple Leafs history with No. 1 pick in Draft

Although reports hinted that the hiring of John Chayka pushed Auston Matthews further away from the Leafs, winning the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery likely put an end to those concerns. All courtesy of the winning combination: 7-2-11-12. Who needs a rebuild when four lottery balls can land a team with the best prospect in a draft class? Needless to say, every time Toronto has owned the first overall pick, it has worked out just fine.

The Maple Leafs have selected first overall twice in NHL history. The first time came in 1985, when they selected Wendel Clark, who went on to score 260 goals and tally 181 assists for a total of 441 points in 588 appearances for the Buds. The second time Toronto picked first in the NHL Draft was exactly a decade ago, when it selected Matthews, who was coming off a one-year stint in Switzerland’s National League. The current captain and franchise leading goal scorer requires no introduction.

The Buds don’t need the third time to be the charm—just another franchise-saving decision. McKenna might be doing everything by the book, leaving no doubts for the Leafs that he is the right choice at first overall. Still, many fans and analysts would have liked to see McKenna on the international stage, playing alongside the likes of Macklin Celebrini and the star-studded Canadian roster.

McKenna misses Worlds, Stenberg has yet to decide

With the 2026 IIHF World Championship (May 15–31) coming up, it remains to be seen whether Swedish prospect Ivar Stenberg—considered the second-best prospect by most, with some even rating him ahead of McKenna—will join Tre Kronor and represent his home country on the world stage.

Stenberg holds an advantage, as the tournament will be held in Switzerland, meaning he faces a much shorter trip than McKenna would. Perhaps Stenberg can improve his draft stock in the international tournament, so whether McKenna is making the right decision also remains to be seen.

However, GM Chayka steered away from announcing his organization’s intentions. When asked about the Maple Leafs’ upcoming first overall selection, the 36-year-old executive played his cards close to the chest.

“We haven’t had scouting meetings yet,” Chayka said, as reported by Chris Johnston. “Second day on the job.” Toronto’s cryptic response has built suspense around who will be the first player taken off the board in the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft.

Moreover, Chayka’s comment fuels reports around the league that Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg could emerge as the No. 1 pick. That would mean the prospect of a club like the New York Rangers drafting McKenna isn’t off the table, despite the Maple Leafs holding the first overall pick.

Maple Leafs could draft Stenberg

Contrary to what happened in 2023 and 2024 (Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini), the 2026 draft class doesn’t have a lock to go first overall. Mostly because neither of the top two prospects are centers. Indeed, McKenna is widely seen as the best player available, but there’s been growing buzz around Stenberg, who has performed well in a professional league (SHL) as a teenager.

Moreover, the Maple Leafs are now being run by Chayka and Sundin. Many analysts and fans believe that if there’s ever an organization that could lean toward Stenberg, it might be Toronto, which has named Swedish hockey legend Sundin as senior executive advisor of hockey operations.

Crucial decision for Maple Leafs

It seems that whichever prospect the Buds select, they can’t go wrong. Selecting McKenna would be the easier choice. If he doesn’t pan out, the outcry won’t be as loud as it would be if Toronto selects Stenberg and he doesn’t meet expectations.

The Maple Leafs are also in dire need of defensive help in their prospect pipeline, but it feels virtually impossible that they’d take a blueliner first overall. The odds of them trading down aren’t any better, either.

Thus, it seems the choice will come down to McKenna and Stenberg. Perhaps there isn’t even a decision to make. Maybe Toronto has already figured out who it wants, and Chayka is just playing things close to the vest. When it comes to the NHL, nothing is ever that simple.

McKenna vs. Stenberg: Stats comparison

McKenna spent the 2025-26 season at the NCAA level with the Penn State Nittany Lions. His arrival at the collegiate level shocked the entire hockey landscape, and he didn’t disappoint making an immediate impact. In 35 appearances for the school in State College, McKenna recorded 15 goals and 36 assists for a total of 51 points. His -7 plus/minus and 36 penalty minutes do raise some concerns, though, as does his physicality which was questioned throughout the season.

As for Stenberg, he flew mostly under the radar to fans in North America as he played for Frolunda HC in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL). Still, he put up 33 points (11G, 22A) in 43 games while playing against grown men as an 18-year-old. Stenberg held his ground, and that give him an edge over McKenna, whom many expected to be even more dominant playing against fellow college students.

Both youngsters competed in the 2026 IIHF World Juniors. However, they didn’t meet, as Sweden went all the way to win the gold medal, while Canada fell in the semifinals to Czechia before winning bronze. McKenna finished with a 4-10-14 stat line, whereas Stenberg registered a 4-6-10.

As reported by Joe Fortunato on Blueshirt Banter, the Rangers may have a real shot at trading up in the 2026 NHL Draft. Not with the Maple Leafs, who won’t move an inch from their spot on the board, but with the San Jose Sharks—arguably the biggest winners of the Draft Lottery. New York could send its fifth overall pick, as well as a roster player—perhaps right-handed defenseman Braden Schneider, who fits the bill perfectly for San Jose’s needs—or more.

By moving up to No. 2, the Rangers would be knocking on the door of McKenna. Even though he is widely considered the best prospect in the 2026 class, Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg has been making noise of his own. Being taken off the board first overall is expected for McKenna, but it’s not a lock. A lot can happen before Toronto announces its pick at KeyBank Center on June 26.

For the Rangers, trading up is virtually a must. After dropping two spots and being set to pick at No. 5, the Rangers have multiple potential options, but none as exciting (on paper) as McKenna or Stenberg. If they move up to second overall, New York is guaranteed to come away with one of them. Climbing their way to No. 2 sets up a win-win scenario for the Blueshirts.

Why Sharks could accept such a trade

Indeed, the Maple Leafs won the NHL Draft Lottery—the sun is shining and birds are singing in Toronto. However, the Sharks may be even bigger winners than the Buds. Once again, chance has been on their side. San Jose jumped up nine spots to secure the No. 2 pick—its fourth straight top-five selection.

Having drafted Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini, and Michael Misa with their first picks in the past three years, it’s no secret the Sharks boast one of the best forward groups in the league for years to come. However, San Jose lacks talent on the blue line. It could always add another elite forward prospect, but it might become a headache down the line, especially when the time comes to accommodate Celebrini, Smith, Misa, and a potential addition like McKenna or Stenberg to top-of-the-market deals.

Instead, the safest option seems to be drafting a defenseman, which this class doesn’t lack. By moving down, the Sharks could come away with the best of both worlds by acquiring a current roster player and an exciting defenseman prospect.

Rangers-Sharks trade faces challenge

San Jose’s real concern centers around New York picking fifth. The consensus around the league suggests RHD Chase Reid will be the first blueliner off the board, and the odds of him being available at No. 5 seem low. Keaton Verhoeff may be available, but his size and concerning skating could make for a risky cocktail organizations might opt to steer clear of.

Perhaps San Jose is better off either “reaching” for a defenseman with the second overall pick or trading down with the Vancouver Canucks or Chicago Blackhawks (No. 3 and No. 4, respectively). If the Nucks and Hawks are interested in moving up, it might leave Chris Drury and the Rangers with no choice but to pull out the personal relationship card.

Drury is close friends with Sharks GM Mike Grier, as they were roommates back in college at Boston University. Moreover, the two have a history of working together in the NHL. With Drury’s seat getting hot in the Big Apple, his good ol’ friend in the Capital of Silicon Valley could come to his rescue.

Rangers will try everything

All in all, a lot can happen in the coming weeks leading up to the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft. Obviously, for the Blueshirts to draft McKenna, they’d need the Maple Leafs to pass on him. It’s improbable, but not impossible. If that happens, the Rangers must give themselves a shot by being in the right place at the right time.

Fortunately for New York, it has friends in high places. What luck hasn’t given the Rangers, they could make up for by working some magic.

Canada moved on to the elimination round in third place in their group. Canada suffered an embarrassing misstep against Latvia, losing 3-2 on a shootout. To add insult to injury, Team USA handed them a deflating 4-1 loss in the last game of the group stage. Thanks to its victories over Finland and Germany, Canada advanced as the third best team from Group A. Thus, Canada will take on the second-seed from Group B, Czechia.

Forward Gavin McKenna has a lot of eyes on him. The 17-year-old is the youngest player in Canada’s roster, and the eighth-youngest to ever participate in the World Juniors. He is widely considered a generational talent, poised to become the NHL’s next superstar. McKenna will be eligible for the 2026 NHL entry Draft.

“We got some people in our own country doubting us, so I don’t know. Just want to prove them wrong,” Gavin McKenna stated prior to the quarterfinals game, via TSN. “I’ve been trying my best to stay away from [the noise]. And honestly, for me it doesn’t really get to me, it fuels me.”

NHL teams take note

McKenna’s blunt statement made waves. The teenager showcased his personality and delivered a powerful message, not only to Team Canada’s skeptics but also offering intriguing insight into himself. NHL teams have certainly taken notice, and they may have their own interpretations of his words.

Some general managers may admire this fiery response, while others might be put off by it. However, when McKenna steps onto the ice, everyone will agree that he is special—and he’s determined to become the next big thing in hockey.

So far in the World Juniors, McKenna hasn’t been a one-man wrecking crew. He scored one goal, through four games with Canada in the competition. However, his firepower is undeniable.

McKenna leads the Western Hockey League with 60 points (19 goals, 41 assists) in 30 games this season. Prior to leaving for World Juniors, he carried a 14-game point streak (10 goals, 21 assists) dating to Nov. 6, per NHL.com.