The Miami Dolphins have just over a 5% chance of making the playoffs, relying on a complex equation that requires the team to win all their remaining games—starting with a crucial matchup against the San Francisco 49ers—and hope for several other teams to suffer unfavorable outcomes.

According to Dolphins Muse, the Dolphins must not only win their next three games against the 49ers, Browns, and Jets but also hope the Chargers lose two of their remaining three games (they’ve already lost one). Additionally, either the Broncos or Ravens must lose all their remaining games for the Dolphins to stay in contention.

One key piece of the puzzle has already fallen into place, giving the Dolphins a slight boost: the Colts needed to lose a game, which they did in Week 15 with a 13-31 road loss to the Broncos.

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