All eyes in the NHL are fixed on Connor McDavid as the Edmonton Oilers captain enters the final year of his contract — and the speculation surrounding his future is intensifying.
The Oilers captain is widely expected to command the richest average annual value (AAV) deal in league history. While the term and structure of a potential extension remain uncertain, many insiders believe McDavid will follow the well-worn path of NHL superstars who re-sign with their teams before ever hitting unrestricted free agency.
“Players like this do not get to the open market. They just don’t,” wrote Bleacher Report’s Adam Gretz. “Until pen gets put to paper, there will be plenty of discussion and speculation about what Connor McDavid’s future is going to be… but it’s all going to be for nothing, as he will eventually get a new contract extension to keep him in Edmonton for at least some time.”
Will McDavid sign a long-term or take a strategic short-term deal?
While McDavid’s future is technically undecided, Gretz’s analysis strikes a confident tone: Edmonton will get the deal done. Even if it’s not an eight-year commitment, the expectation is that McDavid will remain in Alberta for the foreseeable future.
Connor McDavid #97 celebrates an empty net goal with Leon Draisaitl #29 of the Edmonton Oilers during the third period against the Florida Panthers in Game Five of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena on June 18, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
The Oilers are projected to have over $45 million in cap space next offseason, removing any financial excuse not to secure their captain with a deal likely ranging from $16–20 million AAV — a number befitting the NHL’s premier talent.
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Whether McDavid signs a full-term extension or opts for a shorter contract that allows future flexibility remains to be seen. Either way, it’s highly unlikely he tests the open market — something no player of his caliber has done in the modern salary-cap era.
McDavid’s numbers back the price tag
The numbers speak for themselves. McDavid tallied 100 points (26 goals, 74 assists) in just 67 games last season — despite battling injuries — and enters 2024–25 with a career total of 1,082 points in 712 games. He’s a five-time Art Ross Trophy winner, a two-time Hart Trophy recipient, and arguably the most dominant offensive player of his generation.
He’ll turn 29 in January, and his next contract will define the remainder of his prime. As the NHL enters a new cap era, McDavid’s next deal could set a new financial benchmark across the league.
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With players like Jack Eichel and Kirill Kaprizov also nearing free agency, McDavid’s situation will shape not just Edmonton’s plans — but ripple across the league as teams eye potential long shots or dream scenarios. For now, the Oilers remain firmly in control. But until the ink dries, the hockey world will continue to speculate.
