Main draw matches at Wimbledon are about to begin, and all eyes will be on Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner—the young stars who have recently been dominating the biggest titles in tennis. While the Spaniard has had the upper hand in their most recent meetings, he still won’t be able to overtake the Italian in the ATP rankings.
Alcaraz has had a brilliant 2025, particularly since the start of the clay season. He’s won five titles so far this year: the Rotterdam Open, Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Rome Masters 1000, Roland Garros, and most recently, Queen’s Club.
In contrast, Sinner has claimed only one title in 2025—the Australian Open in January. Following that, he was sidelined for three months due to a doping suspension, and on his return, he lost the finals in Rome and the French Open to Alcaraz, along with an early exit in the Round of 16 at Halle to Aleksandr Bublik.
Still, the disparity in current form between the two stars is not yet reflected in the ATP rankings: Sinner remains at the top, while Alcaraz is still trailing. And regardless of what happens at Wimbledon, those positions will remain unchanged, meaning Carlos will have to keep waiting—and working hard—to reclaim the top spot in world tennis.
How does the ATP rankings system work?
The ATP rankings use a rolling 12-month points system that considers players’ performances across the four Grand Slams, eight mandatory ATP Masters 1000 events, and the best seven results from other eligible tournaments, with points awarded based on both results and event importance. Because it’s cumulative, the current form doesn’t always align with a player’s ranking, which depends on how recent performances compare to those from the same time last year.
In Sinner’s case, his ranking is supported by the strong run he had in the second half of 2024, when he earned significant points at the US Open, the Cincinnati and Shanghai Masters 1000 events, and the Nitto ATP Finals. That, combined with his 2025 Australian Open title and solid showings in Rome and Roland Garros, keeps him comfortably ahead.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, only won two titles in the second half of 2024—Wimbledon and the China Open. That means he has a smaller points base from last year and is more reliant on his 2025 results for his current ranking.
What can happen at Wimbledon with Sinner and Alcaraz?
The potential ranking points each player can gain—or lose—at Wimbledon depend on how they perform compared to last year. Here, Sinner has a slight advantage: he was eliminated in the quarterfinals by Daniil Medvedev in 2024, meaning he’s defending only 400 points. Any result better than that will give him a rankings boost.
Alcaraz, in contrast, has a higher threshold to meet. As the defending champion, he can only match his 2024 result at best—retaining the 2,000 points he earned last year. Any finish short of a title defense would mean a significant drop in points.
Even in the best-case scenario for Alcaraz—winning the title while Sinner loses in the first round—it still wouldn’t be enough for Carlos to reach No. 1. Sinner currently leads the standings with 10,430 points and can lose only 400. Alcaraz, meanwhile, must win Wimbledon just to retain his 9,300 points.
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