After a Matchday 1 unexpected debacle, Turkiye is urged to get some points against Paraguay. Unfortunately for the Europeans, the South Americans are in the exact same position.
Turkiye dominated the ball and the actions, but Australia still beat them 2-0 due to two counter-attacks. Turkiye wasn’t able to create clear goalscoring options due to Australia’s very physical defense.
As for Paraguay, it got shocked and lost 4-1 by host nation United States. Hence, it not only needs to save face, but to keep its World Cup dreams alive. It’s a matchup were two agonizing teams desperately need a new lease of life.
What happens if Turkiye beats Paraguay?
If Turkiye beats Paraguay, it keeps Turkiye’s hopes of advancing alive and sets up a decisive final day of Group D matches on June 25, where the United States will play Türkiye and Australia will face Paraguay.
Arda Guler of Turkiye
If Turkiye wins, the group winner remains undecided, and leaves all four teams still mathematically capable of reaching the knockout rounds depending on the final group matches. Turkiye would need to beat the USMNT as well to win Group D.
What happens if Turkiye and Paraguay tie?
A tie between Turkiye and Paraguay keeps both teams alive in the 2026 World Cup, but it has a collateral impact for the United States. Because the USMNT has already defeated both Paraguay (4-1) and Australia (2-0), a draw between Turkiye and Paraguay officially confirms the United States as the winners of Group D.
What happens if Turkiye loses to Paraguay?
If Turkiye loses to Paraguay, it will be eliminated from the 2026 World Cup. Because the USMNT has already defeated Australia to move to six points, a defeat to Paraguay leaves Turkiye with no points through two games.
Even with a win in its final match against the United States, Turkiye would only have three points. That is mathematically not enough to catch up the USA and, even if Turkiye catches Australia or Paraguay with three points, it would lose both tiebreakers (head-to-head record between tied teams).
Therefore, a loss to Paraguay not only eliminates the possibility to finish among the top two of Group D, but also erases any possibility of advancing as one of the eight best third-place teams. If Turkiye loses today, it will finish bottom of Group D.
