What result do Inter Miami need vs Palmeiras today to qualify for FIFA Club World Cup 2025 round of 16?

This Monday night, Group A of the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 will be decided. Both Matchday 3 fixtures will be played simultaneously, determining which two teams advance to the round of 16. Inter Miami and Palmeiras will square off in one of those matchups.

The Brazilian side currently top the group standings with 4 points—the same total as the Herons—but hold a better goal difference (+2 vs. +1). Behind them are Porto and Al Ahly, with the Portuguese club holding the edge due to a superior goal difference (-1 vs. -2).

Given this setup, the range of possible outcomes between Inter Miami and Palmeiras, along with the result of Porto vs. Al Ahly, will determine which teams move on to the next stage.

During the first two Matchdays of the group stage, fixtures were scheduled at different times to allow fans to watch as many games as possible without overlaps. However, that approach is not viable for the third round, as knowing the result of the other match in advance could create an unfair advantage. That’s why Inter Miami and Palmeiras will play at Hard Rock Stadium at the same time that Porto and Al Ahly face off at MetLife Stadium.

Paulinho of Palmeiras, Inter Miami’s next rivals

What result do Inter Miami need to advance?

Heading into Matchday 3 in a qualifying position, it’s clear that a win would guarantee Inter Miami a place in the round of 16—and not just that, it would also put them at the top of Group A. A draw would also work in the Herons’ favor, just as it would for Palmeiras, as both teams would secure advancement. In that case, however, the Brazilian side would finish first.

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Things get more complicated if Inter Miami lose. In that scenario, what happens in the other match—Porto vs. Al Ahly—becomes critical. If that game ends in a draw, both teams would finish with 2 points, meaning the MLS club would still advance with 4 points. But if the Herons lose and there’s a winner between Porto and Al Ahly, advancement will be determined by tiebreaker criteria rather than points alone.

The Club World Cup regulations state that the first tiebreakers are head-to-head result, goal difference, and goals scored among the teams tied on points. In this case, Inter Miami hold the edge over Porto, having beaten them 2–1 in Matchday 2. So, if the Herons lose and Porto win, Lionel Messi and company would still advance to the round of 16.

If it’s Al Ahly who win their match against Porto, the situation changes. The Egyptian team drew with Inter Miami on Matchday 1, so the first tiebreaker isn’t enough. In that case, the rules say the following will be considered: 1) overall goal difference in all group matches; 2) total goals scored; 3) fewer yellow and red cards received; 4) drawing of lots.

In conclusion, Inter Miami can only be eliminated if they lose to Palmeiras, and Al Ahly defeat Porto—and at least one of those results must come with a margin of two or more goals. Only then would disciplinary records, such as yellow and red cards, come into play.