NHL News: Connor McDavid extension may require the Oilers to overcome challenging Stanley Cup odds

There’s no doubt that the Edmonton Oilers—and everyone around the franchise—are eagerly awaiting a positive resolution regarding the contract extension of their biggest star, Connor McDavid. But how could this impact their immediate future and their aspirations of winning a Stanley Cup in the upcoming NHL season?

Recent league history shows that most championship teams dedicate around 40.5% of their cap space to their four highest-paid players. Only a few have managed to win it all while allocating as much as 45%—notably the 2007 Ducks, 2008 Red Wings, and 2016 Penguins, as PFSN notes.

Keeping their top stars on the roster heading into next season breaks the mold of previous championship teams: The Oilers’ four highest salaries — McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, and Darnell Nurse — are set to account for 48.4% of a $95.5 million salary cap, a figure higher than any Stanley Cup-winning team since the salary cap was introduced.

While these are just statistics and not a guaranteed formula for winning a title, the truth is that this year’s 48.4% figure is already pushing the upper limits for the Oilers — a percentage that could rise even further in the coming seasons.

Leon Draisaitl #29 of the Edmonton Oilers celebrates with Evan Bouchard #2 and Vasily Podkolzin #92 after scoring during overtime to beat the Florida Panthers 5-4 in Game Four of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena on June 12, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.

There’s no doubt that keeping Connor McDavid on the roster is a top priority for the franchise. However, it’s been proven that one player alone can’t carry a team to a championship, which makes surrounding him with the right supporting cast absolutely crucial moving forward.

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NHL News: Connor McDavid’s contract update could raise questions about Auston Matthews’ future with the Maple Leafs

Where does Connor McDavid’s contract stand?

Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid is now eligible to sign a new contract extension, a negotiation that stands as the most critical on the team’s agenda. The league’s best player is currently in the final year of his eight-year, $100 million deal, which carries an average annual value (AAV) of $12.5 million and is set to expire after the 2025-26 season.

While once the NHL‘s highest-paid player, McDavid’s AAV has since been surpassed by Auston Matthews, and his future deal is widely expected to reset the market once again.

With the salary cap continuing to rise, sources anticipate that McDavid’s new contract could make him the first player in NHL history to command a salary with an AAV exceeding $15 million, a landmark figure that would reflect his unparalleled value to the franchise and the league.

The unexpected risk in the Oilers’ star-heavy roster

Beyond the on-ice performance, this top-heavy salary structure introduces a significant risk. If one of the four highest-paid players were to suffer a long-term injury, the Oilers would be left with a substantial portion of their salary cap tied up in a player who is not contributing, severely limiting their ability to acquire a replacement or add depth through trades or free agency.

This kind of reliance on a few key players makes the team more vulnerable to unexpected setbacks, underscoring the high-stakes gamble they are taking with this strategy.