This March’s international break will determine the outcome of the CONCACAF Nations League. The semifinal matches are scheduled for this Thursday, with the decisive game for the title set to take place on Sunday. Mexico and Canada clash at SoFi Stadium in California, and the winner will face Panama, who defeated the United States 1-0 earlier on Thursday.

For Mexico, this is another opportunity to take a step closer to a title—something they have not won since the 2023 Gold Cup. Furthermore, they have never claimed the Nations League trophy, a tournament that has been dominated by the United States in its three previous editions. On two occasions, the U.S. beat them in the final to lift the trophy.

Mexico advanced to this stage after overcoming Honduras 4-2 on aggregate in the quarterfinals, having recovered from a 2-0 deficit in the first leg. Canada, by contrast, had a more straightforward route, comfortably defeating Suriname 4-0 on aggregate, winning both legs.

What happens if Mexico win against Canada?

Unlike the quarterfinals, the semifinals, as well as the third-place match and the final, will be decided in a single match at a neutral venue. Should Mexico defeat Canada over the course of 90 minutes on Thursday, they will advance to the CONCACAF Nations League final, which will be played on Sunday vs. Panama.

Canada star Alphonso Davies.

What happens if Mexico and Canada draw?

If the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes, the competition’s rules stipulate that extra time, consisting of two 15-minute halves, must be played. During this period, each team will be allowed one additional substitution, bringing the total number of allowed substitutions to six. If the score remains tied after extra time, the match will be decided by penalty kicks.

What happens if Mexico lose to Canada?

If Canada defeat Mexico in the 90-minute match, Jesse Marsch’s team will advance to the CONCACAF Nations League final, while Mexico will be relegated to the third-place match, which will also be played on Sunday against the United States.

The CONCACAF Nations League final

Mexico and Canada clash this Thursday night, already aware of who their opponents will be on Sunday, either in the final for the title or in the third-place match. This comes after Panama defeated the United States in the earlier semifinal, with a last-minute goal from Cecilio Waterman.

While the primary objective Javier Aguirre’s team is to secure a win against Canada and reach the final of the 2024-25 CONCACAF Nations League, Mexico’s schedule will remain largely the same regardless of the outcome. Whether advancing to the final or competing in the third-place match, they will play once again on Sunday at SoFi Stadium, bringing their participation in the March international break to a close.