The 2025 US Open kicks off Sunday, August 24, at Flushing Meadows with 128 players in the main draw. This year’s tournament brings extra intrigue as Jannik Sinner not only looks to defend his title but also protect his spot as the world’s No. 1.
As always, the list of contenders is stacked. Sinner leads the way, followed by 2022 champion Carlos Alcaraz—who could reclaim the No. 1 ranking with a win—alongside four-time US Open winner Novak Djokovic, American favorite Taylor Fritz, and 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev. To add a different perspective ahead of the opening round, we turned to Google’s Gemini Pro AI for its prediction.
The verdict was clear: Gemini sees a likely final between Alcaraz and Sinner but gives the edge to the Italian. “Jannik Sinner’s path to the final looks more straightforward, and his consistency throughout the year on the biggest stages gives him a slight advantage,” the AI concluded.
Full AI prediction for the 2025 US Open
On Sinner, Gemini highlighted: “His dominance on hard courts is undeniable, with powerful play and composure that make him the most complete player on tour right now. His side of the draw, while not easy, appears less threatening in the early rounds”.
On Alcaraz, the AI noted: “He arrives brimming with confidence after winning the Cincinnati Masters 1000. His energy, creativity, and ability to win on any surface make him a natural contender. Being in the opposite half of the draw, a dream final against Sinner is very realistic, and he’s the only one who seems capable of matching the Italian’s pace”.
Still, Gemini flagged one concern for Sinner after his recent setback against Alcaraz in Cincinnati: “The only question mark is his physical condition after having to withdraw due to illness in the Cincinnati final,” it stressed.
Projected path to the final
According to Gemini, Sinner will open against Vit Kopriva before potentially facing Alexei Popyrin, Denis Shapovalov (27), Tommy Paul (14), Jack Draper (5) and Alexander Zverev (3), en route to a showdown with Alcaraz in the championship match.
On the other side, Alcaraz avoids No. 4 Taylor Fritz, whom Gemini projects to be eliminated by Djokovic. That sets up a semifinal clash between Alcaraz and Djokovic, with the Spaniard projected to advance. His projected path includes wins over Reilly Opelka, Juncheng Shang, Luciano Darderi (32), Daniil Medvedev (13), Ben Shelton (6), and Djokovic (7).
“While Sinner has a more progressive path, Alcaraz will need to be at his best from the opening round and overcome multiple champions and hard-court specialists to earn a date with the Italian in the final,” Gemini concluded.