The theory of Eternal Return suggests that everything in history, society, and the Universe moves in cycles. Events may recur in different forms but with similar patterns. If that theory holds true from this Wednesday in Game 1 of the NBA Playoffs between the New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers, Indiana could be in trouble in the series.
Of all the conference finals in the NBA, this might be the most balanced. The fourth-seeded Pacers and third-seeded Knicks are set to clash in a series that promises to be one of the most competitive we’ve seen this year. And if the theory I just mentioned plays out again, the Pacers could be in for a thrilling series, but still fall short of success.
Everything is in place for a classic showdown between two historic franchises, but there’s a memory from 20 years ago that lingers. Back then, the Pacers, one of the favorites in the East, faced a rising Orlando Magic team. Despite high expectations, Indiana fell short. Orlando, powered by a young Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway, advanced to face the Rockets in the Finals.
That was the 1994–95 season. The Pacers lost the series 4–3, coming just one game shy of the Finals. Now, Indiana enters another crucial test, this time against a Knicks team still chasing its first title since the 1972–73 season, a 52-year drought that adds even more weight to this series.
Predictions by the numbers
As I’ve mentioned in previous columns, I don’t claim to be a prophet. But if we’re talking predictions, let’s take a look at the stats to build a case for who might take the Eastern Conference crown.
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Let’s start with the regular season record: the Knicks finished 51–31, while the Pacers were just one win behind at 50–32. It’s a slim margin, but one that earns the Knicks the first point in this matchup. Score: 1–0, Knicks.
Now to the playoffs: Indiana is 8–2 so far, while New York is 8–4. That gives the Pacers the edge in postseason performance, the score tied at 1–1. Both teams knocked off serious contenders. The Knicks beat the second-seeded Celtics, while the Pacers eliminated the first-seeded Cavaliers. On paper, defeating the No. 1 seed should be tougher, so I’ll give Indiana the point here. Score: 2–1, Pacers.
Let’s compare the stars. Jalen Brunson averaged 26.0 points per game in the regular season; Tyrese Haliburton posted 26.8. Statistically, Haliburton had a slightly greater impact, so that’s another point for Indiana. Final score: 3–1, Pacers.
We could keep digging into advanced metrics, but what matters most is how each team approaches this stage. The Pacers weren’t expected to make it this far, but now that they’re here, both squads have a fresh opportunity to fight for a Finals berth.
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Carrying the weight of history
I opened with the theory of Eternal Return, and it’s impossible not to think back to Indiana’s heartbreaks of the past, especially with Reggie Miller’s legendary run that never quite ended in a title. That era ended in frustration, and since then, the franchise has struggled to climb back to that level.
When the Pacers first reached the Eastern Conference Finals in the 1993–94 season, expectations skyrocketed. But since then, they’ve lost 8 of 9 ECF appearances. Their lone breakthrough came in 2000, when they lost to the Lakers in the NBA Finals.
Those painful memories could serve as fuel. Indiana hasn’t won an NBA title, but they do have three ABA championships from the 1960s and ’70s. That history still matters, especially to a fan base that’s been waiting far too long for the next great moment.
The Knicks want it just as bad
The Knicks, on the other hand, won two NBA titles under Red Holzman. But it’s been 52 years since their last championship, and while they’ve reached the Finals twice since then, they fell short both times. This is their first trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in 26 years, and fittingly, it’s against Indiana. Yes, the Knicks are hungry. But the Pacers may have something extra, something intangible, that gives them a real shot to pull this off.
My prediction
I believe in the theory of Eternal Return and if this opportunity is happening again, I’m predicting the Pacers to win this series in six games. They have the momentum, the numbers, and the weight of history on their side. And most importantly, they carry the spirit of the players who came close but never delivered the championship. Now, it’s Indiana’s time to write a new ending.
