NFL: Joe Burrow Ranks Last in Two of Next Gen Stats’ Metrics

Joe Burrow entered the current calendar as a frontrunner for the MVP award, leading the Cincinnati Bengals to the AFC Championship game in consecutive seasons with impressive performances. However, his season has not panned out as anticipated due to a calf strain he suffered during training camp right before the season opener.

This injury has significantly limited his mobility in the initial part of the season, which had a noticeable impact on the Bengals’ offensive performance, as they have struggled and currently rank among the league’s worst. In terms of conventional statistics, Burrow’s numbers are far from impressive.

Burrow currently ranks 24th in passing yards per game, averaging just 205 yards. His seven touchdown passes place him tied for 14th in the league. Moreover, his passer rating ranks 26th, indicating a decline in his performance since the start of the season. These statistics paint a picture of his underwhelming season with the Bengals having just a 3-3 record at this point.

Joe Burrow’s Issues Detailed in Two Advanced Statistics

There are some advanced metrics that provided another perspective as to how the Bengals offense have fared thus far. Next Gen Stats’ Average Intended Air Yards (IAY) is a statistic that demonstrates the approach they have had in six matchups.

Burrow’s IAY currently stands at 6.3, which places him tied for last with quarterbacks who have much less talent such as Bryce Young and Daniel Jones. Another similar metric that highlights Burrow’s early-season struggles is his Average Completed Air Yards (CAY).

Burrow ranks last in the league with just 3.7 in this other category. These advanced metrics suggest that the Bengals’ offense has been forced to adapt to a more conservative style of play, and they’ve strayed away from their usual explosive plays.

In Burrow’s case, his low IAY and CAY values indicate that he has been attempting and completing shorter passes compared to his previous performance. This shift in passing style likely results from a combination of factors, including his calf injury and adjustments to the offensive strategy.

Burrow has been known for his ability to make big plays, often involving receiver Ja’Marr Chase by securing 50-yard receptions as if it was something easy to do. However, the Bengals have been forced to adopt a more conservative approach this season due to the quarterback’s limitations.

Cincinnati are currently on their bye week after barely staying with a .500 record in six matchups. Therefore, it should be intriguing to follow Burrow’s numbers in the next matches as he returns to form.

What Are Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) and Average Intended Air Yards (IAY)?

Next Gen Stats defines these terms like in the following way, while clarifying Air Yards is recorded as a negative value when the pass is behind the Line of Scrimmage. Additionally, Air Yards is calculated into the back of the end zone to better evaluate the true depth of the pass.
Air Yards is the vertical yards on a pass attempt at the moment the ball is caught in relation to the line of scrimmage.
CAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on completions.
IAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on all attempts. This metric shows how far the ball is being thrown ‘downfield’.