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NFL: Mahomes Ranking 33rd in Advanced Metric May Hint at Trust Issues with Receivers

Despite the Kansas City Chiefs boasting a 5-1 record, Patrick Mahomes ranks notably low in an advanced statistic.

Patrick Mahomes quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs
© Carmen Mandato/Getty ImagesPatrick Mahomes quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have had a near-flawless start to the season, boasting a 5-1 record to lead the division without troubles. They rebounded from a one-point loss in week 1 with five consecutive victories, putting them back at the top of the standings. However, concerns regarding the efficiency of their offense have arisen.

Patrick Mahomes has demonstrated inconsistency on some of the throws he usually converts. But the wide receiver group has added question marks, as the team has numerous options that they can’t fully trust. To address this, they added Mecole Hardman in a trade with the Jets, seeking to bolster the roster with more experienced options in a position dominated by young players.

Traditionally, wide receivers take some time to gain the trust of head coach Andy Reid, but Mahomes has also faced issues connecting with them due to dropped passes. A particular advanced statistic highlights the struggles of the offense, indicating that Mahomes has had to rely on “easier” completions that may not result in great yardage.

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Mahomes Is Only Ahead of Bryce Young in NGS Metric

This statistic is Next Gen Stats‘ “aggressiveness.” “It tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts”, the site explains.

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The four quarterbacks with better passer rating than Chiefs\' Patrick Mahomes

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Mahomes currently ranks second-to-last in the league in this metric with a score of 9.8%. The only player with a lower figure is Bryce Young, who is considered one of the worst quarterbacks in the league for the first six weeks. Geno Smith and Daniel Jones closely follow, neither being considered among the best quarterbacks.

However, it’s important to note that Mahomes taking measured risks could be seen as a strategic choice. Other quarterbacks like Kenny Pickett, Joshua Dobbs, and Zach Wilson are at the top of the aggressiveness metric, though they may not be particularly careful with the ball.

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Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs - NFL 2023

Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – NFL 2023

While comparisons are against his own exceptional standards rather than those of other quarterbacks, it’s worth noting that Mahomes is on pace for career-low statistics in passing yards, touchdowns, and interceptions per game this season.

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Despite the Chiefs not having a superstar in their wide receiver corps, it wasn’t a problem last year as they won the Super Bowl. However, it’s becoming evident that his connection with his pass catchers is off this season. Additionally, the Chiefs downgraded at both tackle positions.

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Advanced statistics are not really perfect, but they could lead to some conclusions. In any case, this metric provides additional insights into a quarterback’s confidence in making tight-window throws. Having trustworthy receivers could encourage a player to take calculated risks when throwing.

How Many Touchdowns Has Mahomes Thrown This Season?

Mahomes has thrown 11 passing touchdowns in six games.

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