The Kansas City Chiefs are heading to their fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years. Patrick Mahomes is still under center, Travis Kelce continues to be his favorite weapon, and Andy Reid remains at the helm of the team. But somehow, something looks different ahead of their game against the San Francisco 49ers.
Despite being the defending champions, the Chiefs arrive in Las Vegas as the underdog team. According to DraftKings, for instance, the Niners are favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII at -125 odds, while a Kansas City victory pays +105.
This makes noise considering how successful the Chiefs have been with Mahomes under center, but it’s safe to say they’ve gotten used to being underdogs this year. In this case, the difference can be explained due to the Niners’ strengths and Kansas City’s weaknesses.
49ers offense looked better in 2023
Perhaps the biggest reason the 49ers are heading to Las Vegas as favorites has to do with their offensive power. While the Chiefs’ offense took many steps back in that area compared to 2022, the Niners were ruthless with the football this season.
San Francisco finished third in total points and points per game scored in the regular season, apart from being second in the NFL in total yards and yards per game, only behind the Miami Dolphins.
While second-year quarterback Brock Purdy has done a great job to get the best out of his star-studded unit, running back Christian McCaffrey has been unstoppable. His level has been so fantastic that it put him in the MVP conversation, when the award is usually reduced to quarterbacks.
However, the 49ers proved to be strong in defense too, being the third team with the least points allowed in the regular season as well as finishing third in points per game received. San Francisco’s overall strength saw it clinch the top seed in the NFC, with Kyle Shanahan being nominated for the Coach of the Year award.
Why Chiefs shouldn’t be written off
Now that we’ve taken a look at some of the Niners’ reasons for optimism, we should consider why the Chiefs should also believe in their chances.
To begin with, San Francisco hasn’t been such a powerful team in the postseason so far. In fact, one could say that Kansas City has been stronger in this playoffs. The 49ers did make their way to the Super Bowl, but the fantastic numbers shown in the regular season plummeted in the playoffs, as they had to sweat to beat the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. They got the job done by making it to Las Vegas, but the image of their offense has been different from that of the regular season.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, showed an evolution come playoff time with commanding victories over the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens en route to their fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years. They won two of those Super Bowls, including one against the Niners in 2020. So, recent performances and experience are on Kansas City’s side.
Defense + Mahomes could give Chiefs the edge
In addition, the Chiefs’ defense has been even better than that of the 49ers, finishing just behind Baltimore in total points and points per game allowed in the regular season. Besides, only the Cleveland Browns allowed less total yards and yards per game than the Chiefs in 2023.
But perhaps the biggest reason why a Chiefs victory shouldn’t be a surprise is the fact that they have Patrick Mahomes under center. Even in his most challenging season as the team’s starting QB, without the weapons he had in previous years while many wideouts failed to catch his passes, he found a way to make the team retain the division title. When the playoffs came, Mahomes was more than ready for it.
He made the right plays at the right moment, winning his first road playoff games en route to another Super Bowl trip. At 28, he’s proving that he’s far from done and many are even comparing his dominance to that of Tom Brady back in the day. As long as they have Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs will always have a reason to believe.