The Houston Texans enter Week 16 with a 9–5 record as they face the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that effectively fell out of contention weeks ago. However, a loss to a struggling opponent would not sit well for Houston, especially with the Texans aiming to clinch a Wild Card spot as early as next week.
If the Texans were to lose to the Raiders, who come into Week 16 with a 2–12 record, the situation would become more concerning. Week 17 looms as a pivotal matchup for Houston to secure its Wild Card berth against the Los Angeles Chargers, while also needing the Indianapolis Colts to lose to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday, December 22.
Simply put, a Texans loss to the Raiders is something no one in Houston wants to see. It would snap their six-game winning streak, and even more damaging, it would intensify criticism of the defensive line, scrutiny that would be difficult to ignore.
Texans playoff probability
A loss to the Raiders would also dent Houston’s playoff odds. Entering the game, the Texans sit at 97% playoff probability, but a defeat would drop that figure to 86%. While not disastrous, it would put added pressure on Houston to win its remaining NFL regular-season games against the Chargers and Colts.
Even with a Texans loss and potential wins by the Jaguars and Colts, Houston would not be severely impacted. In most scenarios, regardless of divisional outcomes, the Texans would still hold a 95% or better chance of reaching the playoffs.
Where a loss would hurt most is in the division race. Falling to the Raiders would significantly damage Houston’s already slim hopes of winning the division, dropping those chances from around 40% to below 30%.