In 2010 it was Octopus Paul, the international sensation that would predictWorld Cup matches by eating from a dish of the two competing nations. Now it would seem that determining the next FIFA World Cup champion is a matter of mathematics as has been done by a study of Elo ratings.

Elo ratings are generally used for chess matches but in this case the study was done to determine the possibilities of all 32 nations lifting the World Cup, examining their groups and future path in the tournament. When the study was presented the teams with the best chances of winning Qatar 2022 are: Brazil, Argentina, and France.

For the PSG trifecta of Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé one of these major world superstars will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup with their respective country according to the study. Here are how the chances of these three superstars stack up in the FIFA 2022 World Cup Elo Ratings.

Elo Rating favorites to win the 2022 World Cup

Brazil has a rating of 26.35 to win the Qatar 2022 tournament and really who can underestimate the Brazilians? Neymar and company had a smooth World Cup qualification campaign, going undefeated. Brazil also won a Copa America in 2019 and finished runners up in 2021.

Brazil has a stacked squad the features Neymar, Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha, Gabriel Jesus, and Casemiro.

Argentina with Lionel Messi seeking his only World Cup comes in second at 18.41. Lionel Scaloni’s side is currently on a 31-game unbeaten run, they also went unbeaten in qualifying and while at times seem to be too Messi dependent, Argentina has some interesting players to keep an eye on in the World Cup: charismatic goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, Lautaro Martínez, Giovani Lo Celso, Leandro Paredes, and young striker Julián Álvarez.

France comes in third at 14.32, winners of the UEFA Nations League and one of the most stacked national teams in the world the defending World Cup champions have Kylian Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann, Paul Pogba, N'Golo Kanté, and Karim Benzema in their ranks.

Other nations chances to win the FIFA World Cup

The study has Belgium, Spain, England, Germany, Portugal, Netherlands, and surprise Denmark as the following countries with World Cup aspirations.

The USMNT did not figure in the teams with the best chances to win the tournament but is among the group that will have the most even playing field according to the study.