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What happens if Arsenal win, tie or lose vs Atletico Madrid today in 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinals first leg?

Arsenal and Atletico Madrid meet in a massive UEFA Champions League semifinal at the Metropolitano, where every possible result could dramatically shift the pressure and path to the final before the second leg in London.

Martin Odegaard of Arsenal celebrates victory after the Premier League match against Newcastle United.
© Richard Heathcote/Getty ImagesMartin Odegaard of Arsenal celebrates victory after the Premier League match against Newcastle United.

The stakes are enormous for Arsenal and Atletico Madrid as both clubs chase a modern-era Champions League title. Today, they start their semifinal tie with the first leg match at the Metropolitano, with a place in the final suddenly within reach. Follow the first leg of Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal live with us!

Arsenal enter the semifinal unbeaten in this season’s competition, while Atletico arrive after eliminating Barcelona and turning their European campaign around following a difficult league phase.

For Mikel Arteta’s men, a victory in Madrid would dramatically improve their chances before the return leg in London, especially considering Arsenal have lost only two of their last 22 Champions League matches.

What happens if Arsenal beat Atletico Madrid today?

If Arsenal beat Atletico Madrid in the first leg, the Gunners will take a major aggregate advantage back to London for the decisive second leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinals. Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber are not playing today though, posing a challenge for the visitors.

David Raya of Arsenal celebrates his team’s first goal during the Premier League match (Source: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

David Raya of Arsenal celebrates his team’s first goal during the Premier League match (Source: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

A victory would immediately place them in control of the tie before returning to the Emirates Stadium, where Mikel Arteta’s side has been one of Europe’s strongest home teams this season. Because UEFA abolished the away-goals rule in 2021, the only thing that matters is aggregate score over both matches.

Arsenal also enter the semifinal with strong recent results against Spanish clubs, including a 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid earlier this season during the Champions League league phase.

What happens if Arsenal and Atletico Madrid tie today?

If Arsenal and Atletico Madrid draw in the first leg, the semifinal will remain completely open heading into the second match in London. A draw would leave neither side with a mathematical advantage because away goals no longer serve.

If the aggregate score remains level after the second leg at the Emirates Stadium, the tie would go to extra time and potentially penalties. Historically, low-scoring first legs often create extremely tense second matches in Champions League semifinals, especially when neither club gains a clear advantage early.

What happens if Arsenal lose to Atletico Madrid today?

If Arsenal lose to Atletico Madrid in the first leg, they will head into the second leg needing a comeback at the Emirates Stadium to keep their UCL hopes alive. So far, the Gunners remain unbeaten in several matches this season.

Even though the away-goals rule no longer exists, losing the opener would still place enormous pressure on Arsenal before the return match in London. Atletico Madrid have historically been one of Europe’s most dangerous knockout-stage teams under Diego Simeone, particularly when protecting aggregate leads.

The size of the defeat would also matter significantly. A one-goal loss would still leave Arsenal fully alive in the tie, but a multi-goal defeat could force Arteta’s team into a far more aggressive approach in the second leg.

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