The 2023 Ballon d’Or winner will be announced in less than two weeks. On Monday, October 30, the world will finally know whether Lionel Messi or Erling Haaland emerges victorious in the accolade that recognizes the best player of the season.

Of course, there are 28 more nominees in contention, but it’s safe to say the decision will be reduced to the Inter Miami star or the Norwegian sensation. While Leo helped Argentina win the 2022 World Cup, Haaland played a pivotal role in Manchester City’s treble last season.

Both have certainly made a strong case to receive the award, but Messi seems to have more supporters. Rodri, in fact, admitted the 36-year-old will probably take home the award over his teammate.

Rodri believes Messi will win 2023 Ballon d’Or over Haaland

“I think a certain Leo Messi is going to take it. Haaland is also a very large figure and has merits,” the Spain international said in an interview with COPE. Rodri also finds himself in the list of candidates, but he doesn’t like his chances.

Rodri and Haaland

The 27-year-old has established himself as one of the best central midfielders on Earth, playing an instrumental role in City’s success last term. In fact, he scored the game-winning goal in the UEFA Champions League final against Inter Milan to secure the club’s first-ever continental success.

Even so, Rodri understands the marketing aspect of the award is a significant factor at the time of deciding the winner and that hurts his chances, just like it did to other great players in the past.

I know it’s an individual award with a lot of marketing,” he said. “Among the monsters I’m with, of course, I lacked marketing, like Xavi and Iniesta. I worry about the things I can control, which is the collective awards.”

Rodri didn’t expand on why he thinks Messi has more chances to win than his teammate, but he still suggested the Argentine star is strong favorite.

Lionel Messi’s season

In 2022, the Ballon d’Or started to consider the typical club season rather than the calendar year. The first winner under this criteria was Karim Benzema, who took the limelight with Real Madrid in the 2021-22 campaign.

Lionel Messi

Since the World Cup took place in December, Messi put himself in the race for his eighth award. At 36, the Rosario-born winger put on a show at Qatar 2022 by leading Argentina to the promised land.

Messi defied Father Time like only a few athletes have done before, pulling the strings for his side and showing up when it mattered the most. His seven goals in as many games are a testament to his determination to make Argentina succeed.

But those numbers take even more importance if we consider the timing of each of those goals. Messi scored La Albiceleste’s first goal in their debut, which ended in a shocking loss to Saudi Arabia. With their aspirations on the line against Mexico, he came up with a moment of magic to put his team in front and pave the way for a much-needed victory to remain alive in the group stage.

From the round of 16 onwards, Messi played with a chip on his shoulder. The former Barcelona star scored in every knockout round game, including a brace in the dramatic final against France. In the end, he received the World Cup Golden Ball as he lifted the most prestigious trophy with his country.

The contrast at PSG

Messi’s season with Paris Saint-Germain, however, is perhaps the reason why many question his chances of winning the Ballon d’Or. Even though he recorded 16 league goals in 32 games — helping PSG secure the Ligue 1 title — his performances never convinced the fans and was constantly blamed for the team’s shortcomings — especially in the Champions League.

Lionel Messi at PSG

Leo’s relationship with the fans seemed broken when he returned from the World Cup. But it looked beyond repair after their loss to Bayern. His commitment to the club was seriously questioned, and there was no turning back. In the end, he left as a free agent with not much to celebrate from his time in the French capital.

Erling Haaland’s season

On the other hand, Erling Haaland exceeded expectations in his first year in England. Though he had already forged a great reputation in Germany, not many thought he could make an early impact in the Premier League.

Erling Haaland of Manchester City

In only a few months, the Norwegian striker proved his €60 million transfer was a bargain. Haaland immediately became the goal-scoring machine Pep Guardiola needed to take this team to the next level, and it ended in the best possible way.

With 52 goals in 53 games across all competitions, Haaland was a key reason behind Manchester City’s treble. In fact, he had more goals than appearances both in the Premier and Champions League.

Apart from finding the net 36 times in 35 league matches, Haaland put up 12 goals in 11 fixtures in the European competition. He was also ruthless in the FA Cup campaign, with three goals in four matches.

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Who deserves to win the 2023 Ballon d'Or?

Lionel Messi
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But the striker was more than just a reliable scorer, he proved to be a true team player. His strength let him dominate both on air and on the ground, setting up great opportunities for his teammates. If it weren’t for Messi’s unbelievable World Cup, maybe there would be no debate at all.