What happens if Jaguars lose today against Broncos in Week 16 of 2025 NFL season?

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 16 with a 10-4 record, a testament to their recent surge. However, a loss to the Denver Broncos today would effectively end their pursuit of the AFC’s No. 1 seed. According to Adam Schefter on X, Jacksonville’s path to the top spot is narrow and requires a three-part scenario to unfold.

To claim the top seed, the Jaguars must first avoid defeat against the Broncos. They would then need Denver to drop at least one of their final two regular-season games and hope for a similar stumble from the New England Patriots.

A loss today would snap Jacksonville’s current five-game winning streak and likely spark harsh criticism. While their playoff probability would only dip slightly, from 99% to 96%, the primary fallout would be their probable elimination from the race for the first-round bye.

Searching for a road win in Denver

History is not on Jacksonville’s side when playing in the Mile High City. The Jaguars have not secured a road win against the Broncos since 2019. While that isn’t a massive gap in time, the two most recent meetings between these franchises took place in Florida, both of which resulted in losses for the Jaguars.

On a positive note, Jacksonville hasn’t lost on the road since Week 10 against the Houston Texans. Since that defeat, they’ve picked up away wins against the Cardinals and Titans. While those opponents may not be top-tier contenders, the victories helped improve the Jaguars’ road record to a solid 4-2.

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What happens if Broncos lose to Jaguars today in 2025 NFL Week 16?

Following today’s game, the Jaguars travel to face the Indianapolis Colts before returning home to close the regular season against the Tennessee Titans. Those final two matchups appear manageable for a Jacksonville team that has already proven its mettle this year with wins over the 49ers, Chiefs, and Chargers.