Milan-based clubs have failed to win Serie A this season, but they still have a shot at European glory, as they make up half of the UEFA Champions League Semi-Finalists. One of them will go to the Final in Istanbul, but either European favorites Real Madrid or Manchester City will be waiting for the victor.

On May 9, City and Madrid played to a thrilling draw at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, putting each of them one step closer to the grand final. Although all of Pep Guardiola’s teams after Barcelona have dominated in the domestic leagues, they have come up short in Europe.

Meanwhile, Inter‘s victory against AC Milan in a dramatic Milan derby at San Siro was a major step toward the club’s goal of playing in the UCL final. In a match that fans had been looking forward to for weeks, Edin Dzeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan scored early goals to give the Nerazzurri a 2-0 advantage coming into the second leg.

Who will go into the UCL Final and win the competition as per FiveThirtyEight’s supercomputer?

According to an advanced computer system, Manchester City have the best chance of winning the Champions League this year. Based on the outcomes of the first legs, the supercomputer FiveThirtyEight determined that the Citizens have a 70% chance of advancing to the final.

Upon arrival in Istanbul, they will have a 51.5% chance of taking first place in the whole tournament. On the other hand, since Inter easily dispatched their city rivals Milan by a 2-0 score in the first leg, the two teams are likely to face each other in the championship game.

There is currently a 94% possibility that Simone Inzaghi’s squad will make it to the championship game. There is a 30% possibility that Real Madrid will reach the final for the second year in a row, while the Rossoneri, who are heavy underdogs owing to their poor recent play, have just a 3% chance of doing the same.