There are five teams in the NL Central, and the Cincinnati Reds have recently emerged as the favorite of Steve Phillips, an insider for MLB Network, to win the division, well ahead of the Chicago Cubs and other clubs such as the Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals.
“Their starting pitching matches up with anybody… I think the Reds have a real chance to win the NL Central this year. They’re going to be well beyond 78-79 wins,” Phillips said on MLB Network when discussing expectations for the Cincinnati Reds.
It’s a bold take considering the Reds haven’t won the NL Central title since 2012. Last season, however, they returned to the MLB postseason for the first time since 2020, snapping a lengthy October drought.
The 78-79 win barrier for the Reds
One of the points Phillips emphasized is that the Reds could surpass the 79-win mark, something they have managed only three times between 2021 and 2025. The picture looks even tougher when expanding the lens to the last decade. Excluding the shortened 2020 season, the Reds have topped 79 wins just a handful of times since 2015.
Reaching the postseason may not be as daunting, but winning the NL Central presents a much steeper challenge, especially with the Cubs in the mix. Chicago last captured a division title in 2020 and owns three division crowns over the past 10 years. They finished second in the division last season with a 92-70 record.
The key to fulfilling Phillips’ prediction lies in the pitching staff. Cincinnati’s projected rotation appears built to compete with elite lineups across baseball, including contenders from other divisions such as the New York Mets. The Reds are counting on Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Chase Burns to anchor what could be one of the division’s strongest rotations.