NHL News: Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews could face Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux-style regression

Auston Matthews is entering the 2025-26 NHL season as the captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs, a role he assumed from John Tavares last year. While Matthews has long been one of the league’s elite goal scorers, his 2024-25 campaign was notably less productive, hindered by injuries that required treatment overseas in Germany.

Despite scoring 33 goals in 67 games—a solid total for most forwards—it was a steep decline from the 69 goals he netted the previous season. Fans and analysts alike are now questioning whether Matthews can surpass the 40-goal mark this upcoming season.

Speaking on TSN’s OverDrive, NHL insider Bryan Hayes expressed concern about Matthews’ offensive trajectory: “I think it’s more likely it’s less than 40… Most players, especially the elite, do their highest scoring in the first six to eight years of their career, and then it slowly falls off.”

Could Matthews face a regression similar to other NHL greats?

Hayes drew comparisons to other elite NHL forwards, noting that even all-time greats like Mario Lemieux and Wayne Gretzky eventually saw their scoring decline. “Gretzky, his first seven, eight years was unbelievable and then it kind of dropped. Mario Lemieux, that’s just the way it goes. Guys get 10 years into their career. It doesn’t mean they’re still not great. It means they usually focus on different areas of their game.”

Former Edmonton Oilers forward Wayne Gretzky greets fans during the closing ceremonies at Rexall Place following the game between the Edmonton Oilers and the Vancouver Canucks on April 6, 2016. (Codie McLachlan/Getty Images)

He also referenced Connor McDavid, who scored 64 goals in 2022-23 but has since dropped to 32 and 26 goals in the following two campaigns, respectively. “I said it last year about [Connor] McDavid. I don’t think he’s ever going to score 64 goals again… The guys who get 10 years into their career don’t mean they’re not great—they usually focus on different areas of their game,” Hayes explained.

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How does Matthews’ contract tie into his performance expectations?

In August 2023, Matthews re-signed with the Maple Leafs for four years with a cap hit of $13.25 million, totaling $53 million. His previous 69-goal season in 2023-24 made him the league’s top single-season goal scorer, surpassing Connor McDavid’s 64-goal mark. Before that, no player had reached the 60-goal mark since Steven Stamkos in 2011-12, and prior to him, Alex Ovechkin achieved 65 goals in 2007-08.

This contract and his historical scoring prowess make Matthews’ upcoming season a crucial test, both for him personally and for the Maple Leafs’ aspirations moving forward.