In the wake of a heartbreaking defeat to Argentina, Mexico arrive in the group stage finale of Qatar 2022 in a tough spot. El Tri are not eliminated from the FIFA World Cup yet, but have plenty of work to do.

First of all, Gerardo Martino's men need to claim all three points against Saudi Arabia to keep their round of 16 hopes alive. If they do so and Argentina lose to Poland, El Tri would secure a place in the next round.

However, if Mexico win but the Pole national team doesn't, the tiebreaker would come into play. Therefore, it's important for Mexico to keep in mind how many goals they'd need to score in case they finish tied in the standings.

How many goals would Mexico need to avance in the 2022 World Cup?

Mexico would face a tiebreak situation if they win and Poland don't beat Argentina. The number of goals they'd need to score, however, would depend on the result. This is how the Group C standings look right now:

  1. Poland: 4 points (+2 Goal Difference / 2 Goals Scored, 0 Goals Against)
  2. Argentina: 3 points (+1 GD / 3 GS, 2 GA)
  3. Saudi Arabia: 3 points (-1 GD / 2 GS, 3 GA)
  4. Mexico: 1 point (-2 GD / 0 GS, 2 GA)

Supposing that Mexico win but Poland don't, El Tri would be in a tricky situation. These are the scenarios

  • Poland draw: Mexico would need to score at least four goals, because they need to finish with better goal differential or higher goals scored than Argentina.
  • Poland lose: Mexico would need to score as many goals as required to end with better goal differential or higher goals scored than Poland. That would depend on how much Poland lose by.

Therefore, everything would be much easier for Mexico if Poland upset Argentina. But then again, first they'll have to defeat Saudi Arabia. Using this World Cup Predictor, you can see every potential outcome of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

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