When the final four teams take the field next mid-week in the second legs of their UEFA Europa League Semi-Finals matches, there will be plenty of drama. After a tie in the first leg between Juventus and Sevilla and a last-minute victory for Roma over Bayer Leverkusen, both games are very close heading into the second leg.
The reigning UEFA Europa Conference League winners kept their European title ambitions alive with a 1-0 first-leg home victory against the Bundesliga side. Edoardo Bove scored the game-winning goal at the Stadio Olimpico, continuing the club’s pursuit of consecutive European titles.
Meanwhile, Sevilla’s record in the tournament, which includes six titles, has been based on not squandering opportunities. Thus, Youssef En-Nesyri gave the Spaniards the lead, but seven minutes into overtime, Federico Gatti headed in the equalizer to maintain Juventus’ unblemished home record in the UEFA Europa League.
Who will go into the UEL Final and win the competition as per FiveThirtyEight’s supercomputer?
A sophisticated algorithm predicts that Roma will be the Europa League champion this season. The supercomputer FiveThirtyEight has calculated that the Gialorossi have a 65% probability of making it to the final based on the results of the first legs.
There is a 35% probability they will win the championship if they make it to Budapest. They will, however, very certainly meet Sevilla in the finals, as per the algorithm.
As of right now, there is a 58% chance that the La Liga team will reach the finals. Meanwhile, there is a 30% likelihood that Juventus will make it to the grand event, while the big underdogs, Leverkusen, have just a 35% chance due to their terrible performance in previous Bundesliga games.
