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What happens if Ecuador lose, win or tie vs Germany today at the 2026 World Cup?

Ecuador beat Germany against all odds, pulling off one of the biggest upsets at the 2026 World Cup.

Enner Valencia of Ecuador
© Florencia Tan Jun/Getty ImagesEnner Valencia of Ecuador

Ecuador were one of the biggest disappointments of the 2026 World Cup until Matchday 3. After an impressive qualifying campaign in CONMEBOL, many expected the South Americans to have a strong start.

Instead, Ecuador entered the final matchday of Group E with only one point from two games. The campaign started with a frustrating 1-0 defeat against Ivory Coast before Ecuador suffered another setback by drawing 0-0 with Curacao in one of the tournament’s surprises.

That put La Tri in a tough spot, as they needed to beat Germany in order to keep their World Cup hopes alive. The Germans fielded their strongest possible team, but Ecuador defied the odds.

What happens if Ecuador lose vs Germany?

If Ecuador had lost to Germany, they would’ve been eliminated from the World Cup. The South Americans would’ve finished the group stage with just one point, nowhere near enough to qualify as one of the tournament’s eight best third-place teams.

What happens if Ecuador win against Germany?

By defeating Germany, Ecuador have qualified for the Round of 32 and now wait to know their opponent as one of the eight best third-place teams. Based on the results across the tournament, four points will be enough to secure a place among the best third-place teams. Ecuador can’t finish lower than the eighth-best third-place team, so they’re advancing at the World Cup as the third-place team in the Group E standings.

What happens if Ecuador tie with Germany?

If Ecuador tied with Germany, they needed a specific and unlikely combination of results to go through. Therefore, they pretty much needed a win to stay alive in the tournament.

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