Live by the sword, die by the sword. In the 2026 World Cup final, Lionel Messi and Argentina will have to prove a prediction wrong—even if that same prediction correctly forecast their World Cup triumph in 2022. That’s how steep the climb will be for La Albiceleste against Spain. And that’s before even taking into account Messi’s head-to-head record against La Roja.
It appears the odds are stacked against Messi and Argentina ahead of the 2026 World Cup final. La Albiceleste are already looking to defy history by trying to break a FIFA ranking trend. No team ranked No. 1 entering the tournament has ever gone on to lift the trophy, and guess where Argentina stood in the FIFA rankings before the start of the 2026 World Cup.
Perhaps the biggest blow to Messi and company, however, is that EA Sports didn’t predict Argentina to win the 2026 World Cup. Instead, it picked Spain. At first glance, that may seem insignificant. However, the publisher behind soccer’s biggest video game franchise has correctly predicted the last four World Cup champions.
EA Sports’ streak at World Cup
EA Sports has been on a remarkable run since 2010, when it correctly picked Spain to win its first World Cup title. It then accurately forecast Germany’s triumph in 2014, France’s in 2018, and Argentina’s in 2022.
Currently four for four, EA Sports could improve to five for five if Spain lift the 2026 World Cup trophy. Messi and Argentina, however, won’t go down without a fight. If anything, the prediction may serve as extra motivation to prove the doubters wrong.
Either way, they face a daunting challenge, as Spain have played some of the best soccer in the tournament, conceding just one goal in seven matches.
Messi faces ghost from the past
As if EA Sports predicting Spain to win the 2026 World Cup weren’t enough, Messi and Argentina will also have to confront some painful memories in the final. With the championship match set to be played at New York–New Jersey Stadium (MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey), Argentina will return to familiar—and haunted—ground.
Exactly 10 years ago, Argentina lost the Copa America final to Chile at this very stadium. Messi missed a crucial penalty in the shootout, skying his attempt over the crossbar. After suffering his third consecutive defeat in a major final—the 2014 World Cup, the 2015 Copa America, and the 2016 Copa America—Messi made a rash decision. Speaking to reporters in the mixed zone, he announced his retirement from international soccer.
“This is it. The national team is over for me. [I’ve lost] four finals (including 2007 Copa America). Unfortunately, it’s not meant for me. It was what I most wanted, but it wasn’t to be. I think it’s over,” Messi said back in 2016 after a second Copa America final loss to Chile.
A different Messi
Everybody knows how the story unfolded. A decade later, Messi will return to his haunted house with a chance to finally lay those ghosts to rest. He will take the field against trends and streaks that seem to favor Spain, but this is a different Messi—one who now has two Copa America titles and a World Cup under his belt.
If someone had told the forlorn Messi who walked out of MetLife Stadium in 2016 that this would be his reality a decade later, he probably wouldn’t have believed it.
