Phillies urged to rely on Aaron Nola as rotation faces early-season uncertainty

The Philadelphia Phillies enter the 2026 season facing significant uncertainty in their starting rotation. Ranger Suárez departed in free agency, and Zack Wheeler is expected to miss the beginning of the year as he recovers from surgery.

While Wheeler is projected to return at some point in April or May, the Phillies will need stability from the rest of the rotation early in the season. That places renewed focus on veteran right-hander Aaron Nola.

According to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, Nola is the pitcher Philadelphia needs most to rebound after a difficult 2025 campaign. “Nola went 5-10 with a 6.01 ERA in 17 starts last season,” Zolecki wrote. “It was the highest ERA by a Phillies pitcher (minimum 90 innings) since Nick Pivetta’s 6.02 ERA in 2017. Bad seasons happen. But what made Nola’s troubles concerning is that he is 32, and he has thrown more innings and more pitches than anybody in baseball since 2017.”

He added, “Nola also is entering the third year of a seven-year, $172 million contract. They need him to bounce back, knowing Zack Wheeler is coming back from surgery, Jesús Luzardo and Taijuan Walker are free agents after the season and prospect Andrew Painter hasn’t thrown an inning yet in the big leagues.”

Aaron Nola #27 of the Phillies pitches against the Dodgers. Luke Hales/Getty Images

A defining year for Nola

Last season marked one of the most challenging stretches of Nola’s 11-year career. Injuries limited his availability, and his effectiveness dipped well below the standard he had established as one of the National League’s most dependable starters.

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Beyond the surface numbers, there are broader concerns about workload. Having logged more innings and pitches than any pitcher in baseball since 2017, durability and long-term effectiveness have become part of the conversation as he moves deeper into his 30s.

Rotation stability is essential

Despite the struggles, Nola’s track record suggests a rebound is possible. Prior to 2025, he had made at least 32 starts in four of the previous five full seasons, consistently anchoring Philadelphia’s staff.

With Suárez gone, Wheeler recovering, and top prospect Andrew Painter still awaiting his major league debut, the Phillies’ postseason aspirations may hinge on Nola rediscovering his form. A bounce-back season from the veteran right-hander would provide much-needed stability for a rotation navigating transition and uncertainty.