Reds or Mets: How can each team clinch the final NL Wild Card spot?

As the 2025 MLB regular season nears its conclusion, all eyes are on the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets, who are locked in a tight battle for the final National League Wild Card spot. With the Arizona Diamondbacks officially eliminated on Friday, only one of these two teams will punch their ticket to the postseason.

Both clubs enter Saturday’s games with identical 82-78 records. However, Cincinnati holds the all-important tiebreaker edge, having won the season series against the Mets 4-2. That means if both teams finish with the same record, the Reds would automatically claim the third NL Wild Card slot.

The intensity couldn’t be higher as both teams prepare for a weekend that could define their 2025 campaigns. With pitching matchups and late-season momentum in play, every at-bat and inning is magnified in importance.

How can the Reds clinch the playoffs?

For Cincinnati, the path to the playoffs is more straightforward due to their tiebreaker advantage. Several scenarios can guarantee a postseason berth for the Reds:

• A Reds win and a Mets loss on Saturday.
• Wins in both Saturday and Sunday games, regardless of what New York does.
• Two Mets losses over the weekend.

Gavin Lux #2 of the Reds is congratulated by Terry Francona #77 after scoring in the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

The Reds will send 2025 All-Star Andrew Abbott to the mound on Saturday against Milwaukee Brewers starter Robert Gasser. On Sunday, Brady Singer takes the hill against ace Freddy Peralta. If they capitalize on these opportunities, the Reds could clinch as early as Saturday, providing a significant morale boost heading into the playoffs.

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How can the Mets clinch the playoffs?

For New York, the road is slightly more complicated. The Mets must rely on both their performance and some help from Cincinnati:

• Both Reds losses on Saturday and Sunday, coupled with at least one Mets win.
• One Reds loss combined with two Mets wins over the weekend.

The Mets will counter with Clay Holmes on Saturday against the Miami Marlins’ Eury Perez, while Sunday’s starter remains unannounced against Edward Cabrera. The Mets will need clutch hitting, sharp pitching, and tight defense to overcome the tiebreaker deficit and secure a playoff spot.

As the weekend unfolds, every pitch, hit, and defensive play could determine which team extends their season and which one goes home. With playoff hopes hanging in the balance, both the Reds and Mets know that there is no margin for error.