What happens if Dolphins lose against Steelers on MNF tonight in 2025 NFL Week 15?

Riding a four-game winning streak, Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins (6-7) hope to keep their playoff dream alive. In Week 15 of the 2025 NFL campaign, the Phins hit the road to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) in the City of Bridges.

In Week 14, Tagovailoa silenced some critics by leading Miami to a statement victory over the New York Jets. Tua cancelled out some of the outside noise not because of defeating the 3-win Jets, but because it was his first NFL career win in sub 46-degree (Fahrenheit) weather.

As the Dolphins travel to Pittsburgh, the forecast calls for even worse temperatures at Acrisure Stadium. Along with the expected 18-degree weather in the Steel City, Tua and the Dolphins will have to go up against Aaron Rodgers, Mike Tomlin, and the Steelers, which—needless to say—will offer much more resistance than the Jets.

If Tagovailoa and the Dolphins walk out victorious, they can really send a message to the rest of the NFL. If not, the papers on Tuesday will read that the Dolphins are still the same old Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins.

What happens if Miami loses to Pittsburgh?

If the Dolphins lose to the Steelers in the frozen elements at Acrisure Stadium, Miami will be officially eliminated from playoff contention in the 2025 NFL campaign. Dropping to a 6-8 record would guarantee the Dolphins can’t surpass the 9-5 Houston Texans—currently in possession of the seventh seed in the AFC.

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What happens if Steelers lose today to Dolphins on MNF in Week 15 of 2025 NFL season?

As a result, Tagovailoa would drop to 0–6 in games played below 40 degrees. Whether that’s a fair statistic to hold over the Dolphins’ $212 million-contract quarterback or not, it’s a fact—and one that will continue to follow Tua’s career until he proves he can win crucial games late in the season in any place other than Miami Gardens.

Moreover, by being eliminated in Week 15, this year’s playoff exit would become the earliest Miami has had under Mike McDaniel. Last year, the Dolphins reached Week 18 with a chance—though remote—to sneak into the postseason. During McDaniel’s first two years in Miami, the Dolphins reached the postseason twice, though they fell both times in the Wild Card round.

Steelers would need win over Ravens to secure berth

If the Steelers defeat the Dolphins in Week 15, they would improve to 8–6 on the season, extending their lead in the AFC North race. Having defeated the Baltimore Ravens earlier—and scheduled to meet again in Week 18—Pittsburgh could take the next two weeks off and focus entirely on beating Baltimore in the regular-season finale.

Even if the Ravens win out in their next two outings, the Steelers would secure the AFC North title with a win over them in the final week. Both teams would finish with 9–8 records, but the tiebreaker would go to Pittsburgh thanks to the 2–0 head-to-head mark. It would also extend Mike Tomlin’s winning-seasons streak to 19 consecutive years.