The Toronto Maple Leafs secured the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery. Although the Maple Leafs avoided committing to Gavin McKenna, all signs point to the 18-year-old from Whitehorse, Yukon, becoming the first overall selection—the third in franchise history.
The last time the Maple Leafs drafted first overall? In 2016, when they selected none other than Auston Matthews, who has recently been linked to trade speculation. While drafting McKenna could help change the narrative in Toronto following a rough 2025–26 NHL season, a report suggests the Maple Leafs may still need to show more in order to convince Matthews to stay put.
“Obviously, the first overall pick is a good sign. There’s a lot more that has to happen with respect to [Matthews]. There’s a lot more that has to happen with the Leafs, in terms of what additional moves they’re going to make,” David Pagnotta said during an appearance on Leafs Morning Take. “Across the board, these are all positive signs.”
Maple Leafs have work to do
Not all of the Maple Leafs’ struggles will magically disappear after the 2026 NHL Draft (June 26–27). Some might argue the work is only just beginning for the revamped front office in The Six.
Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Having a strong free-agency period will be crucial. In the meantime, the Buds will have to keep their heads on a swivel, as a trade request from Matthews could catch them off guard at any moment.
Fortunately for Toronto, four lottery balls made life much easier and allowed the organization to breathe a sigh of relief. If there truly was a serious danger of the captain jumping ship, McKenna appearing on the horizon may have the Maple Leafs shouting, “Land ho!”
Toronto needs more help aside from McKenna
Needless to say, drafting McKenna (or Ivar Stenberg) with the first overall pick would go a long way for the Maple Leafs to bounce back after their 32-36-14 finish in 2025-26. Still, no team that ever finishes in second-to-last place in a conference is just one player away from becoming a Stanley Cup contender. Matthews knows that, so he wants to see his club actually invest to overturn the recent struggles.
Toronto needs help across the board. Trying to convince Maple Leafs fans that drafting McKenna isn’t the right move would be senseless—and probably a lost cause. Still, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the Buds’ biggest need actually lies on the blue line—and not on the wing, where McKenna makes a living.
The Maple Leafs could certainly use a high-end defensive prospect who could eventually join the team’s top pairing at Scotiabank Arena. Perhaps a right-handed defenseman like Chase Reid would be a perfect fit in Toronto. Had the Leafs landed the No. 2 pick, there might be a more serious debate about that possibility. However, with the first overall selection, the odds of them drafting anyone other than McKenna appear extremely low.
Gavin McKenna is the projected No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.
Maple Leafs’ prospects
As things stand, Toronto’s top prospects are winger Easton Cowan, right-shot defenseman Ben Danford, and goaltender Dennis Hildeby. The moment the Buds announce their first-round pick at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, that player will immediately jump to the top of the organization’s prospect rankings—whether it’s McKenna or Stenberg, the two most obvious candidates.
Anything can happen, but it appears GM John Chayka and senior executive advisor of hockey operations Mats Sundin won’t overthink the decision and will instead select the player who has long been considered the consensus No. 1 pick.
