With only two matches left to play, Italy still hold hope of securing a direct spot at the 2026 World Cup, though their margin for error is razor-thin. The upcoming clashes against Moldova and Norway in the UEFA 2026 World Cup Qualifiers will determine whether the four-time world champions can avoid the dreaded playoff. That journey begins this Thursday.
The Italian national team approaches the final stretch of qualifying with two decisive fixtures remaining: a visit to Moldova followed by a home match against Norway in Milan. Italy currently sit second in Group I, just behind leaders Norway. With that scenario, the Azzurra still have a mathematical chance of earning automatic qualification, but the path forward is narrowing quickly.
It has been 11 years since the four-time world champions last appeared in a World Cup. Italy have not played in a knockout stage since their 2006 triumph in Germany. In both South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014, they exited in the group stage.
Afterward, Italy failed to qualify for Russia 2018 following a playoff loss to Sweden and once again missed out on Qatar 2022 after a shocking playoff defeat to North Macedonia.
Mateo Retegui of Italy
What happens if Italy win vs Moldova?
With two games remaining in qualifying, only Norway and Italy are still battling for the top spot. Both sides are already guaranteed at least a playoff berth. However, Erling Haaland may have sealed Italyâs fate with his brace in the 4-1 win over Estonia, as Norway now lead the group with 21 points and +29 in goal differential. Italy head into their game against Moldova in second place with 15 points and +10 in goal differential. That means that, while a win today would keep Italy in contention for the top spot, theyâd still need to beat Norway by a large margin on Sunday to claim a direct 2026 World Cup berth.
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To qualify directly, Italy must finish first in the group. That means winning both matches and either surpassing Norway on points or edging them out on goal difference or head-to-head results. A commanding victory margin â ideally by four or more goals â would strengthen their case.
What happens if Italy and Moldova tie?
A draw would finish Italyâs chances of automatic qualification, since Norway are now six points clear after beating Estonia. However, a draw would still see Italy compete in the UEFA playoffs for a 2026 World Cup berth.
What happens if Italy lose to Moldova today?
In the same scenario of a draw, if Italy lose to Moldova, they will no longer have chances of winning the group and therefore securing a direct 2026 World Cup spot. Therefore, the Azzurra only need one thing today: to win, and if possible, by many goals.
