At the beginning of the College Football season, Texas Longhorns‘ quarterback Arch Manning was regarded as the best prospect and likely the first overall pick in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft. After a few weeks, it’s now another signal-caller the odds-on favorite to be the number one pick.
According to Vegas’ odds, it’s Alabama QB Ty Simpson the favorite to be the first overall pick, with a line set on +220. He is followed by Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza at +290.
South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers is at +600 right now. He is then followed by Dante Moore of Oregon at +750. The first non-QB on the list to be selected first overall is Miami defensive end Rueben Bain at +800.
Ty Simpson has been stellar for the Crimson Tide
In 2025, Simpson is leading the SEC in three different categories. He leads the SEC in completions (177), touchdown passes (20) and Adjusted Yards gained per pass attempt (9.73). He is also completing 67.8% of his passes, and has only one interception.
Alabama is 7-1 too, which helps Simpson’s case. Bama also has an SEC record of 5-0 in 2025. Simpson, who is 6’2″ could be on the loop for a big-time NFL move. Many teams are on the lookout for a quarterback and a rookie sensation like him could definitely tempt plenty of franchises.
What are Arch Manning’s odds now?
Arch Manning‘s struggles have taken a toll on his odds. Right now, his odds stand at +4000. His stocks have devaluated massively. Manning’s numbers have not been precisely other-worldly.
He is completing only 60.9%, has 1,795 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions. However, his debt is in the big games, where Arch has been exposed. He is still raw.