Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season sees the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a tough spot, with Baker Mayfield and company facing little margin for error in their visit to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
Arriving in South Florida with a 43% playoff probability, the official NFL website shows that the Bucs’ playoff chances would drop to 33% if they lose to the Dolphins. A victory, on the other hand, would increase their postseason odds to 66%.
However, a loss in Miami could prove costly depending on what happens with the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. If the Buccaneers lose to the Dolphins and the Panthers beat or tie the Seahawks, the Bucs will be eliminated from playoff contention.
Bucs, Panthers in fierce battle for playoff spot in the NFC South
The Panthers lead the NFC South heading into Week 17 with an 8-7 record, one game above the Bucs (7-8). With only one playoff spot available in the conference, winning the division is the only way Tampa can still make the 2026 NFL playoffs. If the Panthers finish Week 17 two games above the Buccaneers, it will be all she wrote for Tampa Bay’s playoff aspirations.
Week 18 will see the Bucs face the Panthers for the second time this year, shortly after Carolina’s Week 16 home win by three points. Depending on the Week 17 results, the 2025 NFL regular season finale could set up a thrilling game between division rivals with a playoff berth at stake.
For the Bucs to have a chance at the NFC South title and a playoff spot in the case of a hypothetic loss in Miami, they need Carolina to fall as well. If the Panthers lose against the Seahawks and the Bucs lose to the Dolphins, the division crown and the last ticket to the playoffs in the NFC will be up for grabs when Tampa Bay hosts Carolina in Week 18.