Coming away with the first overall pick after the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, most fans and analysts believe the Toronto Maple Leafs have won the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes. However, a recent report suggests the Penn State alum may not be selected No. 1. As a result, the door could be open for a team like the New York Rangers or Vancouver Canucks to pounce on the opportunity.
“There is no player in this Draft that is clear cut, No. 1,” Craig Button said during an appearance on Frankly Hockey. “There just isn’t, in my view. The margins are razor thin.“
If that’s the case, the 2026 NHL Draft could be more of a crapshoot than a sure thing. As a result, the Rangers and Canucks could come away with the most coveted player in the upcoming class—even if he doesn’t end up being selected first overall. The odds may not be in their favor, but both New York and Vancouver know odds can be deceiving. They favored both teams in the Draft Lottery, and everybody knows how that turned out.
Top prospects in 2026 class
Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg are often considered the top—and perhaps only—candidates to be drafted first overall in 2026. However, both are wingers, and that may raise concerns for the Maple Leafs. Centers are more valuable in the NHL, and because of that, a prospect like Caleb Malhotra could be favored by Toronto.
Ivar Stenberg playing for Sweden’s U-20.
More likely than not, if the Buds settle on Malhotra as “their guy,” they would swap spots on the board with an organization like New York or Vancouver. If the Maple Leafs decide on Stenberg, taking him first overall makes much more sense and wouldn’t be considered nearly as much of a reach—if at all. Still, it would raise eyebrows across Ontario.
Although some Maple Leafs fans have already gone ahead and ordered McKenna jerseys, until the pick is in, anything can happen. It’s no secret the Buds need defensive help more than anything else ahead of the 2026-27 NHL season. If they decide to address that need, prospects like Chase Reid, Carson Carels, and Keaton Verhoeff could all be on their radar.
Leafs could trade down with Rangers, Canucks
The trade route is a very appealing one for the Leafs. If it opens up, the Canucks and Rangers would waste no time sending their offers. Toronto is well aware it could get a king’s ransom—from New York, Vancouver, and even Chicago—to move down a couple of spots. The Maple Leafs may have finished 28th in the league last season, but they are much closer to contention than the Blueshirts, ‘Nucks, and Hawks are. At least on paper they are.
As long as the Leafs have Auston Matthews, they may only be a few pieces away. Those pieces could very well arrive in The Six through a trade involving the No. 1 selection. If they trade down or pass on McKenna, the hardest part to deal with would be the noise within the city. It would follow the Buds through every corner of Toronto.
For John Chayka and Mats Sundin, making such a move just months into their new jobs would certainly send a message. It might even become the kind of decision that lays the foundation for future statues outside Scotiabank Arena—but it could just as easily become the perfect way to speedrun their path to getting fired.
John Chayka speaks at a press conference.
Toronto may not be able to afford such a bet
For Chayka, the stakes are simply too high to take that kind of risk. Even if the organization would rather select Ivar Stenberg, Caleb Malhotra, or a blueliner, drafting McKenna is the only route that won’t have fans lighting torches and marching down Yonge Street calling for their heads.
As things stand, the Maple Leafs hold the fate of the 2026 NHL Draft in their hands. The Rangers and Canucks are behind the eight ball and can only hope to move up the board through a trade. The likelihood of such a move happening depends on who you ask around the league.
Still, for the time being, McKenna is up for grabs. Until the first overall pick is announced at KeyBank Center on June 26, no one can take the beacon of hope away from the Big Apple or Vancity. And who knows? Maybe the entire league is in for a surprise courtesy of the Chayka-Sundin administration in Toronto.
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