The Indianapolis Colts enter Week 16 with an 8-6 record, facing a highly stressful Monday Night Football matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. A loss could effectively end their playoff hopes, as they currently hold just a 5 percent chance of reaching the postseason.
If the Colts lose to the 49ers, their playoff probability would drop to 3% percent, making it nearly impossible to compete for a Wild Card spot or any other path to the playoffs. That scenario becomes even more concerning given that Indianapolis has not won a game since Week 10.
Philip Rivers represents the Colts’ biggest source of hope. The team needs to avoid a loss against the 49ers with a quarterback who defeated them four times during his years with the Chargers. Last week against the Seahawks, Rivers threw for 120 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception.
AFC South standings and the scenario that puts the Colts in the playoffs
The AFC South is firmly controlled by the Jacksonville Jaguars at 11-4, with the Houston Texans in second place at 10-5 and the Colts sitting third at 8-6. All of this comes before the matchup against the 49ers, a game that could significantly improve Indianapolis’ playoff chances if the Colts manage to win, as explained by Colts writer and NFL Draft analyst Destin Adams on X.
“If the Colts lose this week and win out, their chances are 18 percent. If they win out, they are at 86 percent. It’s not impossible to make it with just two wins down the stretch, but winning this week improves their odds tremendously,” Adams wrote on X (@thedestinadams).
see also
What happens if 49ers lose today against Colts on MNF in 2025 NFL Week 16?
In simple terms, the Colts not only cannot afford to lose to the 49ers, but they must also beat the Jaguars and Texans, both division rivals. However, Indianapolis is 2-2 against AFC South teams this season and already lost to both the Jaguars and Texans three weeks ago.
