We are still a couple of months out from the 2022 FIFA World Cup, but many of the qualified nations already know how the majority of their roster will be comprised, and Mexico is no different. A little over 60 days after beating El Salvador 2-0 at the Estadio Azteca and securing their spot in Qatar, El Tri has embarked on a friendly tour in the United States with a 38-man squad, some of who will later face the Concacaf Nations League. 

That’s where the problems for manager Gerardo Martino start. When Mexico qualified to the international tournament at the end of March, they did so without even a hitch, finishing in second place with eight wins, four draws, and only two losses. El Tri even finished higher than the United States, which seemed highly unlikely entering the final window. But, the time to select the final 23-man roster will come sooner than later and Martino has his work cut out for him. 

Will the controversial figure of Javier Hernández sneak his way into the final list? Will Marcelo Flores, who recently declared that he will be playing on a senior level for Mexico, convince Tata to the point of getting a ticket to Qatar? What of players like Rodolfo Pizarro, Diego Lainez and Sebastián Córdova, who either don’t play for their teams or haven’t shown an important level of consistency? Coming up, we’ll break down the players on Mexico’s roster that are most likely to miss out on soccer’s most important tournament. 

Roster rules for the FIFA World Cup 

Remember Euro 2020, the tournament that was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and played in 2021? Back then, UEFA allowed an increase in roster size from 23 players to 26, in order to cope with the effects of the pandemic. Despite the increase, teams could still only call up 23 players to matchday rosters, which included three goalkeepers. And what about the 2021 Copa America, where teams were allowed to present a monstrous 50 player preliminary list and a final roster of 28 players? 

The changes to the rules of the game for the prestigious European championship and the passionate South American one led many journalists and fans to speculate that FIFA will likely follow suit and allow 26 players for each team at the World Cup in Qatar. First, rumors indicated that the new ruling would be implemented at the FIFA Congress in March. That time has come and gone and the international organization is yet to confirm the changes, which some speculate would also include an expansion of five substitutions. 

This is what FIFA officially states regarding the 2022 FIFA World Cup rosters: 

A total of 23 players shall be named on the start list (11 players and 12 substitutes). The 11 first-named players must start the match, and the other 12 are designated as substitutes. The numbers on the players’ shirts must  correspond with the numbers indicated on the start list (numbers 1-23 only). All goalkeepers and the captain must be identified as such. Three players must be goalkeepers, with the number 1 shirt reserved for one of them.

So why hasn’t FIFA confirmed the change that would seemingly benefit everyone? Because, as TyC Sports indicates, managers at European clubs are apparently against losing even more players to a tournament that is being played in what is usually the middle of the season. The Argentina media outlet indicates that Conmebol teams are the ones pushing for expanded rosters, with Brazil vying for an even larger number of 28 players being a part of the World Cup itself. 

Several media outlets have reported that FIFA is considering including the option for national teams to call up to 26 players, with 23 being the bare minimum, but nothing has been confirmed as of yet. 

As a reminder, the World Cup in Qatar will run from November 21 until December 18. To give you an idea of how disruptive that would be for leagues, the Premier League is taking a month-long break starting on November 13 and the Bundesliga won’t be played from November 13 until January 20. The UEFA Champions League, the UEFA Europa League and the UEFA Europa Conference League group stages will end early November, to give players a bit of a break prior to the World Cup. 

Be it 23, 26 or even 28 players that will represent Mexico in the prestigious tournament, who will be left out of the final list? 

Mexico's list

On May 17, Gerardo Martino called up 38 players for the friendly matches against Nigeria, Uruguay and Ecuador, as well as the two Concacaf Nations League games against Surinam and Jamaica. Diverse media outlets in Mexico reported that players that weren’t included in the aforementioned list would hardly be included in the final one en route to Qatar. Assuming FIFA will allow countries to call up to 26 players to the World Cup, there are 12 footballers on this list for El Tri that won’t be making the trip.

Goalkeepers

Mexico has historically been well supplied in goal, and this World Cup is no different. The four players called up to the friendly and Nations League tour are Santos Laguna’s Carlos Acevedo, Leon’s Rodolfo Cota, América’s Guillermo Ochoa and Alfredo Talavera. Ochoa will definitely be the one starting, and with Talavera likely securing the other position, the final spot for goalkeepers should be disputed between Acevedo and Cota. Seeing as how Acevedo only recently started to don the Tricolor jersey and Cota is more experienced, it seems probable that Santos’ goalie will not make the final roster. 

Defenders

Starting with left backs, there is little doubt that Jesús Gallardo and Gerardo Arteaga are the main contenders for Mexico’s starting spot. Although Gallardo has been Martino’s starter for most of the World Cup qualifying cycle, he hasn’t shown consistent form for Rayados, which means the Argentinian manager could look to the KRC Genk man instead. Arteaga has put in serious work in Belgium and has proven to be a reliable option. On the chopping block: Monterrey’s Erick Aguirre, called up to the tour, and Leon’s Osvaldo Rodríguez. 

Center backs are one of Mexico’s most stacked positions. César Montes, Néstor Araujo, Héctor Moreno and Johan Vásquez seem to be certain options to travel to Qatar, but there are a few alternatives included in the 38-man list that could sneak their way onto the airplane. First comes Jesús Angulo. The left-footed Tigres defender is 24 years old and has shown versatility in the back line, which might be useful for Martino. The same could be said of Puebla’s Israel Reyes, and Cruz Azul’s Julio César Domínguez. The final three names are a coin flip to go to the World Cup, but Domínguez could be the final central defender included due to his experience and ability to play multiple positions. 

At right back, Jorge Sánchez will likely be Mexico’s starter at the World Cup. Behind him come Julián Araujo and Kévin Álvarez, all included on the 38-man list. Despite Álvarez’s impressive performances for Pachuca in the past year, it seems likely he will be the man left out of Qatar in lieu of the LA Galaxy defender. Other options considered in the past include Luis Alfonso Rodríguez and Alan Mozo, but they seem to have been erased by Martino. 

Midfielders

Martino plays with a 4-3-3 formation, meaning that defensive midfield is one of the most crucial spots on the field. There are few doubts that Edson Álvarez will be the starter in Qatar, with Andrés Guardado playing a supporting role in what will be his fifth World Cup. Players in the same position called up to the friendly tour and Nations League matches are Luis Chávez from Pachuca and Erik Lira from Cruz Azul. These two names will likely not make the trip to Qatar. 

El Tri’s central midfield, occupying the left and right spots next to the defensive midfielder, is packed with options. Locks that will certainly make the final World Cup roster are Houston Dynamo’s Héctor Herrera, PSV Eindhoven’s Erick Gutiérrez and Cruz Azul’s Carlos Rodríguez, who is still recovering from injury. Players that could make their way to Qatar in similar positions included in the 38-man roster are Fernando Beltrán, Erick Sánchez and Orbelín Pineda. Beltrán and Sánchez will likely be left out, but Pineda will probably be called up due to his versatility, since he can play in midfield and attack, in spite of limited minutes at Celta de Vigo. 

Attack

Versatility is key for Martino’s system, with most players up top having the ability to switch positions during a match with relative ease. At left wing, Hirving Lozano will be starting for Mexico barring any unforeseen circumstances, which leaves Roberto Alvarado on the chopping block if rosters are comprised of only 23 players, since Chivas’ Alexis Vega can also play in that position and will certainly be playing at the World Cup. 

At right wing, Jesús Corona is Martino’s preferred option without a doubt. In spite of his low form for the national team in recent years, Tecatito is highly valued since he can play out wide and in the middle, and is skillful enough to change a match in the blink of an eye. Uriel Antuna and Diego Lainez, also heavily favored by Martino, will likely make the trip to Qatar. Even though Lainez barely has any minutes for Real Betis, he is still called up regularly and will probably be in the final list. 

Mexico doesn’t play with a central attacking midfielder, but Martino still calls up players who naturally develop themselves in that position. For the friendly and Nations League tour, Sebastián Córdova, Rodolfo Pizarro and Marcelo Flores were the number 10s that were called up. Flores is the most interesting option of the three, since he has been starring for Arsenal’s Under-23s and recently declared his intention to play for Mexico on a senior level. Córdova and Pizarro have dropped their level considerably and are already controversial picks. Now imagine the pressure when the time to pick the final World Cup roster comes; they will probably be left out of the list. 

At striker, people have already accepted that historic Mexican goalscorer Javier Hernández will not go to the World Cup due to alleged personal differences with Martino and his staff. In his spot, Raúl Jiménez will undoubtedly be the starter, which leaves three players competing for the extra spot up top. Tata has given Rogelio Funes Mori his unwavered confidence, which indicates he will likely take up the second striker spot. Cruz Azul’s Santiago Giménez and America’s Henry Martín are likely the names that will be left out, since Jiménez, Funes Mori, and even Alexis Vega can each fight for the starting number 9 role. 

Here’s what Mexico’s World Cup Roster will likely be, and who out of the 38-man roster for the friendly tour and Nations League games will be left out. 

Goalkeepers:

IN: Guillermo Ochoa, Alfredo Talavera, Rodolfo Cota. 
OUT: Carlos Acevedo. 

Defenders: 

IN: Jesús Gallardo, Gerardo Arteaga, César Montes, Néstor Araujo, Johan Vásquez, Héctor Moreno, Jorge Sánchez, Julián Araujo. 

OUT: Erick Aguirre, Kevin Álvarez, Jesús Angulo, Julio César Domínguez, Israel Reyes. 

Midfielders:

IN: Édson Álvarez, Andrés Guardado, Héctor Herrera, Erick Gutiérrez, Carlos Rodríguez, Orbelín Pineda. 

OUT: Luis Chávez, Erik Lira, Fernando Beltrán, Erick Sánchez, Luis Romo. 

Attackers: 

IN: Hirving Lozano, Alexis Vega, Jesús Corona, Uriel Antuna, Diego Lainez, Marcelo Flores, Raúl Jiménez, Rogelio Funes Mori, Roberto Alvarado. 

OUT: Henry Martín, Santiago Giménez.