Morocco faces Zambia on Matchday 3 of the AFCON 2025 in search of a favorable result that could define their future in the competition. Despite entering the tournament as one of the top favorites, the situation remains delicate, and a single result can dramatically shift the standings. That uncertainty raises a central question: what happens if Morocco win, draw, or lose?
Group A remains wide open, with Zambia, Mali, and Comoros all still in contention to advance to the knockout stage. While only the top two teams qualify directly, the four best third-placed teams also move on, which keeps several scenarios alive.
As additional context around the competition, the race for the best third-place spots remains extremely tight. Currently, with only three national teams already eliminated, the four third-placed sides advancing are Mozambique, with three points from Group F, Benin, with three points from Group D, Sudan, with three points from Group E, and Zambia, with two points from Group A. On the other side of the line, Angola from Group B and Tanzania from Group C, both with one point, are the third-placed teams that would be eliminated as things stand.
It is also important to remember how the tiebreakers are applied in AFCON 2025. When teams finish level on points, the first criterion is the head-to-head results between the tied teams. If the tie persists, goal difference within the group is considered, followed by total goals scored. If teams remain inseparable after those metrics, the final tiebreaker is a draw.
Achraf Hakimi #2 of Morocco.
What happens if Morocco win vs Zambia?
From a standings perspective, a Morocco victory over Zambia mathematically secures qualification to the next round, removing any dependence on other results or goal difference.
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What happens if Morocco and Zambia tie?
In the case of a draw, Morocco remain in a strong position but must look elsewhere. If Mali beat Comoros, Morocco advance only if they hold a superior goal difference over Comoros. If Mali draw or lose, Morocco move through, though their final position could still be decided by goal difference or goals scored.
What happens if Morocco lose vs Zambia?
A loss places Morocco in a dangerous position and forces them to rely heavily on the outcome of Mali versus Comoros. If Mali win, Morocco could be eliminated, even with a solid goal differential, depending on the final scoreline. If Mali draw, Morocco risk going out if Zambia surpass them on total goals. Only a draw between Mali and Comoros keeps Morocco alive with certainty, making defeat the most volatile and risky scenario.
