When it comes to global soccer powerhouse status, the Netherlands are a perennial protagonist. Having reached three World Cup finals without ever lifting the trophy, the Dutch are desperate to shed their “nearly men” label once and for all, beginning with a highly anticipated 2026 World Cup group-stage opener against Japan.
Historically, the Dutch have enchanted the soccer world by unleashing generational talents onto the biggest stage. Simply mentioning icons like Marco van Basten or Johan Cruyff instantly evokes memories of “Clockwork Orange”—the legendary Total Football machine that revolutionized the sport during the 1970s.
Now, more than 50 years after those pioneers cemented their legacy, head coach Ronald Koeman and his squad are looking to author their own chapter. A commanding opening performance against a dangerous Japan side would immediately legitimize the Netherlands’ status as genuine championship contenders in North America.
Standing in their way is a Japanese squad heavily favored to make a deep run and push for a semifinal spot. Despite suffering a devastating pre-tournament blow with the injury and subsequent international retirement of captain Wataru Endo, the Samurai Blue are out to prove their tactical depth and resilience can withstand any elite challenge.
What happens if the Netherlands beat Japan?
A victory over Japan would give the Netherlands a crucial three points to sit atop the Group F standings, at least temporarily. Their ultimate placement at the end of the matchday will depend on the outcome of the group’s other opening clash between Sweden and Tunisia later today.
Securing an opening-match win drastically alters a team’s mathematical probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. Under the current tournament format, the top two teams from each group qualify automatically, alongside the best third-place finishers, making early maximum points and a healthy goal differential paramount.
What happens if the Netherlands and Japan draw?
A draw would see the Netherlands and Japan split the points, leaving both nations tied with one point each in the Group F standings. Both teams would then have to wait for the conclusion of the Sweden vs. Tunisia match to see exactly where they sit heading into the second matchday.
A stalemate would also mean that if these two teams finish level on points at the end of the group stage, goal differential—rather than head-to-head record—will serve as the primary tiebreaker to determine who advances or secures a more favorable seed.
What happens if the Netherlands loses to Japan?
A defeat would leave the Netherlands empty-handed on zero points, while catapulting Japan into the group driver’s seat with three points. Dropping the opener severely narrows the Dutch margin for error, putting immense pressure on their remaining fixtures and threatening to derail their knockout-stage aspirations before they even get off the ground.
Fortunately for the Oranje, a loss wouldn’t completely eliminate them, as they would still have two games left to salvage a spot in the Round of 32. The Netherlands will next take the pitch against Sweden on June 20, before wrapping up their group-stage campaign against Tunisia on June 25.
