The 16 teams advancing to the AFCON 2025 knockout stage will be finalized this Wednesday, December 31. In Group F, Cameroon and Mozambique face off in a match that will determine exactly where each team lands in the final standings.
Currently, Ivory Coast and Cameroon share the top of the group with four points each, while Mozambique sit just behind with three. Crucially, none of these three teams are at risk of being eliminated today.
Along with the Ivorians, Cameroon and Mozambique have already mathematically secured their places in the next round. This is due to Gabon’s failure to earn a single point in their first two matches, which has already resulted in their elimination.
While Gabon could technically tie Mozambique on points if they defeat Ivory Coast and Cameroon win their match, it would not change the outcome for the Mambas. In the event of a tie in points, the tournament’s first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record between the teams. Since Mozambique defeated Gabon 3-2 on Matchday 2, they hold the advantage and are guaranteed to advance regardless of today’s results.
What happens if Cameroon win vs Mozambique?
If Cameroon secure a victory over Mozambique, the squad led by David Pagou will put itself in a strong position to win Group F. However, its ultimate ranking depends on the parallel result of the Ivory Coast versus Gabon match.
see also
What happens if Ivory Coast win, tie or lose vs Gabon today in AFCON 2025 group stage finale?
If the Ivorians fail to win their game, Cameroon will clinch the top spot outright. Conversely, if Ivory Coast also win, the group winner will be determined by the goal difference between the Elephants and the Indomitable Lions.
What happens if Cameroon and Mozambique tie?
If the match between Cameroon and Mozambique ends in a draw, Mozambique will officially qualify for the Round of 16 as the best third-placed team in Group F. This result would leave the fight for the top spot exclusively between Cameroon and Ivory Coast.
The Indomitable Lions would clinch the group title if Ivory Coast suffer a loss to Gabon in their simultaneous fixture. However, a win for the Elephants would see them leapfrog Cameroon to take first place.
In the event that both Group F matches end in a tie, the group winner will be decided by goal difference between Cameroon and Ivory Coast to break their deadlock at the top of the standings.
What happens if Cameroon lose vs Mozambique?
If Mozambique manage to pull off an upset victory today against Cameroon, they could finish as the leaders of Group F, leaving the Indomitable Lions as the best third-placed team of the group. This scenario would require Ivory Coast to fail in securing a win against Gabon.
However, an Ivory Coast victory would end Mozambique’s hopes of taking the top seed. In that case, a win for Mozambique would secure them second place in the group, setting them up for a high-stakes Round of 16 showdown against South Africa.
