The AFCON 2025 group stage reaches its conclusion this Wednesday, December 31, with a final slate of four matches. Highlighting the schedule is a critical Group F showdown between Ivory Coast and Gabon, where the defending champions are well-positioned to advance to the knockout rounds.
While the final standings for Group F are still being decided, Ivory Coast effectively have one foot in the next round. The Elephants currently sit atop of the standings with 4 points, meaning a single point today would guarantee their progression. Even with a loss, the reigning champions would likely advance as one of the four best third-placed teams in the tournament.
In contrast, Gabon face a much steeper climb. Led by star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, the Panthers have failed to record a point in their first two matches. Their only path to the Round of 16 requires a victory today, combined with a favorable result in the simultaneous matchup between Cameroon and Mozambique.
As the group stage draws to a close, the race for the best third-place slots remains tight. Currently, Tanzania, Benin, Sudan, and Mozambique are the frontrunners for those final four tickets to the elimination rounds, but with one matchday left, the landscape of the tournament could change dramatically by the final whistle.
What happens if Ivory Coast win vs Gabon?
If Ivory Coast defeat Gabon in the final group stage match, the team led by Emerse Fae will automatically secure its place in the knockout rounds. The result of the match will determine their path forward in the tournament bracket.
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Should the Elephants finish as the runner-up in Group F, they are slated for a high-stakes meeting with South Africa in the next round. However, if they clinch the top spot in the group, they will instead face the second-place team from Group E, which is expected to be either Burkina Faso or Sudan.
What happens if Ivory Coast and Gabon tie?
Should today’s match end in a draw, Ivory Coast would officially secure their passage to the Round of 16. With 5 total points, the defending champions would be guaranteed a top-two finish in Group F, regardless of the outcome between Cameroon and Mozambique.
What happens if Ivory Coast lose vs Gabon?
A victory for Gabon tonight is the only way Aubameyang and his squad can keep their slim hopes of a knockout stage berth alive. However, their fate is not in their own hands; a win or even a draw for Mozambique against Cameroon would officially eliminate Gabon from the tournament, regardless of their own result.
Ivory Coast enter the match with significantly less pressure, as they have already guaranteed their place in the Round of 16. However, a loss could still sting, as it might drop them to third place in the group standings. This would only happen if Mozambique defeat Cameroon and the Indomitable Lions maintain a superior goal difference over the Ivorians.
