What happens if Turkey win, tie or lose vs Bulgaria today in UEFA 2026 World Cup Qualifiers?

The UEFA 2026 World Cup Qualifiers are slowly entering the decisive stretch, and Group E remains wide open with just two matchdays left. Turkey hosts Bulgaria at the Matlı Stadyumu Atatürk Sports Complex, needing a crucial three points to move one step closer to securing its World Cup berth.

Vincenzo Montella’s squad is dreaming of qualifying for the World Cup for just the third time in its history, and that goal is looking increasingly within reach. Still, to secure a direct ticket, Turkey will need to knock Spain out of the top spot.

A home victory over Bulgaria could crank up the pressure on the group leaders, who will be playing their own crucial matchup against Georgia at the same time. So who will ultimately clinch the direct qualification spot — and who will be forced to settle for a playoff berth?

What happens if Turkey win today vs Bulgaria?

If Turkey beats Bulgaria today, it will climb to 12 points, pulling level with Spain at the top of the group. In that scenario, the Turks will be hoping for a Spanish slip-up to set up a final-day showdown between the two sides — with everything on the line and both teams on equal footing.

Hakan Calhanoglu of Turkiye and teammates.

What happens if Turkey and Bulgaria tie?

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If the match ends in a draw, Turkey would move to 10 points, holding on to second place in Group E. In that scenario, a Spain victory would be enough to secure its World Cup berth, leaving Turkey bound for the playoff route.

What happens if Turkey lose vs Bulgaria today?

A loss to Bulgaria would all but end Turkey’s hopes of earning a direct spot at the World Cup — unless Spain also falls to Georgia. That’s why this matchup is essentially a must-win for Montella’s side.