‘Ronaldo will get penalties like Messi did in Qatar’: Uruguay icon Lugano on Portugal’s 2026 World Cup chances

With the 2026 FIFA World Cup about to get underway, Uruguay legend Diego Lugano has already delivered a bold prediction. According to the former international captain, Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo will benefit from a tournament atmosphere that will see them awarded as many penalties as Lionel Messi and Argentina received at Qatar 2022.

Four years ago, Messi captured the World Cup to secure the final missing piece of his legendary trophy cabinet. Now, fans worldwide are wondering whether Cristiano Ronaldo, who has his sights set on the title, can replicate that fairytale ending in what is widely expected to be his final appearance on the global stage.

Lugano believes the path is cleared for the Portuguese icon to do just that, suggesting that the off-field narrative will shift heavily in favor of the Europeans to get as many penalties as possible to advance.

“Portugal are contenders because Cristiano is going to have penalties awarded in his favor, just like Messi had in Qatar,” Lugano said for ESPN Brazil, referring to Argentina’s five penalties in 2022. “That is the reality. There is going to be a favorable energy to avoid generating controversy, (laughs).”

Diego Lugano of Uruguay

Portugal face an intriguing Group in the 2026 World Cup

Situated in Group K, Portugal will square off against DR Congo, Uzbekistan, and Colombia in the opening stage of the tournament. While many analysts expect Ronaldo’s side to comfortably top the group, the collection of teams presents some fascinating challenges.

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Colombia enter the tournament as one of the major frontrunners from South America. Projections suggest that Luis Diaz and his teammates possess the quality to make a deep top-four run, and they could easily challenge Portugal for the top spot in the group.

Meanwhile, DR Congo and Uzbekistan are both viewed as dangerous dark horses. With the eight best third-placed teams across the tournament advancing to the newly expanded Round of 32, the fight for every single point will significantly heighten the competitiveness of each group fixture.

Diego Lugano does not see Uruguay as a top contender

Despite his deep ties as a legendary captain for Uruguay, Lugano is taking a strictly objective approach to his tournament evaluation. The former defender pointed to Brazil as the South American nation best equipped to make a deep run in North America, ranking them ahead of Uruguay, Argentina, and Colombia.

“Brazil is the South American team I have the highest expectations for to go far,” Lugano said about the nation managed by Carlo Ancelotti. “They will build momentum as the tournament progresses.”