While draft projections are a thing, betting numbers can also be used as a method of monitoring where the players will fall. In this case, recent line movements may have spoiled the New York Jets‘ decision at the second overall pick, with pass-rusher Arvell Reese becoming the new odds-on favorite to be taken at two.
Vegas’ odds have now Reese at -140 to be taken after the first pick. Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey, who was previously the favorite to go to the Jets at two, is now an underdog in the +100 to +110 range.
This might be due to the Jets’ recent cancelation of a planned visit that Bailey had with the team. However, Bailey already visited the Jets previously, so this could actually be a trick on the oddsmakers. Either they will definitely pass on him, or are set on picking him.
Arvell Reese is not at an elite level, but has elite upside
Reese is not a Micah Parsons, or a Myles Garrett. However, he is regarded as one of the best pass rushers in the 2026 NFL Draft class. In 2025, he racked up 6.5 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss, and an 86.5 run-defense grade according to Pro Football Focus. Those are nice numbers, not elite ones.
However, plenty of scouts have said that Reese is just “scratching the surface” in regards of his pass-rush ability. After all, he transitioned to a full-time pass-rusher in 2025. Reese’s talent is big, but he might need to be a bit more polished.
Should the Jets go defense at no. 2?
Talent-wise, it’s wiser to go defense, since any offensive pick would be reaching a lot. The other option is to trade down, but that will depend fully on what the Jets intentions are come draft day.
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Is Arvell Reese a good pick at no. 2?
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