Belgium have some ground to make up for as they take on Iran in their second game of Group G in the 2026 World Cup. Coming off a disappointing 1-1 tie against Egypt, the Red Devils take on the Persian Cheetahs in a game that could prove decisive. The game will lack a key player in Jeremy Doku, who isn’t playing for Belgium today.
Entering the second matchday of the group stage, all four teams are even in Group G. Because Belgium tied against Egypt while Iran and New Zealand settled for a 2-2 draw, the four sides have a single point. In more ways than one, they are all still on square one.
Thus, Belgium and Iran’s game at Los Angeles Stadium is crucial. Neither team can afford a misstep. For Belgium, the pressure is mostly on them, as they entered the 2026 World Cup as the favorites in Group G and potential title contenders. Iran, on the other hand, can play with the benefit of having everything to gain and little to lose.
What happens if Belgium beat Iran today?
A win over Iran would go a long way for Belgium. Not only would the Red Devils jump to first place in Group G with four points—at least until Egypt and New Zealand face off later—but it would help Belgium find their footing in the 2026 World Cup. Defeating Iran would not mathematically guarantee Belgium a place in the round of 32, but it would put them in prime position.
Thibaut Courtois of Belgium.
Belgium would be guaranteed to finish at least third with a victory over Iran, and with four points and one game to go, it would likely take a disastrous result in the final match against New Zealand for Belgium to miss the round of 32. Even if they lose to the All Whites, four points could be enough to finish as one of the eight best third-place teams in the 2026 World Cup.
However, anything can happen. If Belgium win against Iran today, they should aim to secure at least one point against New Zealand to avoid having their calculators out on the final matchday. A win over New Zealand in the final matchday should be enough to finish first in Group G, unless Egypt defeat both New Zealand and Iran, and finish with a better overall goal differential than Belgium.
What happens if Belgium and Iran tie?
While Belgium are under pressure to defeat Iran, a draw would not be disastrous. If Belgium and Iran draw, the Red Devils would have two points and be in need of a win in the final matchday of the group stage—against New Zealand—to punch their ticket to the knockout stages of the 2026 World Cup.
A draw would be bittersweet, as it would leave Belgium with two points and everything on the line in their next outing. Still, and needless to say, it would leave them in a far more encouraging position than a loss would.
What happens if Belgium lose against Iran today?
A defeat at the hands of Iran would be the worst-case scenario for Belgium. Iran would move into first place—at least momentarily. Belgium, with a single point, wouldn’t be eliminated, but they would need to pay close attention to the action between New Zealand and Egypt.
In the final matchday, not only would Belgium need a win over New Zealand, but they would also need to score more goals than whoever prevails in the other game between Iran and Egypt. If Belgium lose to Iran, the final score could also play a major role, as it would create a deficit the Red Devils would need to erase in their final game against New Zealand, while also moving ahead in goals differential than their group competitors.
All in all, a loss to Iran would leave Belgium with no margin for error and in desperate need of a win over New Zealand, while also potentially requiring help from third-party results and other groups’ standings. The easy way out for Belgium, then? Avoiding a loss against Iran. A win would virtually send them through to the next round, a draw would leave them needing a win in the last game, and a loss to Iran may require a blowout victory over New Zealand.
World Cup tie-breakers
The first tie-breaking criterion is the head-to-head result. Because there’s a scenario in which Iran defeat Belgium, Belgium beat New Zealand, New Zealand do the same to Egypt, and Egypt take down Iran—creating a vicious circle—the Group G standings may come down to head-to-head goal differential and goals scored. Even those could finish tied, and that’s when overall goal differential would become the tie-breaker.
If the overall goal differential and goals scored are the same for all four teams, then fair play points will decide the standings. If even that is tied, then it will come down to each side’s FIFA ranking. For the time being, Belgium are first in that regard at No. 10, whereas Iran are No. 22 in the FIFA rankings. Egypt (28th) and New Zealand (83rd) trail the Red Devils.
Needless to say, if it comes down to FIFA rankings, New Zealand’s odds of making it out of the group stage are slim to none.
2026 World Cup Group G standings
| Pos. / Team | PTS | GP/GD (GF) |
| 1. New Zealand | 1 | 1/0 (2) |
| 2. Iran | 1 | 1/0 (2) |
| 3. Belgium | 1 | 1/0 (1) |
| 4. Egypt | 1 | 1/0 (1) |
