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What happens if Bucs lose today to Dolphins in Week 17 of 2025 NFL season?

There's a lot at stake for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17 with the 2026 NFL playoffs right around the corner.

Baker Mayfield walks off after a game against the Panthers.
Ā© IMAGO / Newscom WorldBaker Mayfield walks off after a game against the Panthers.

Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season sees the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a tough spot, with Baker Mayfield and company facing little margin for error in their visit to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Arriving in South Florida with a 43% playoff probability, the official NFL website shows that the Bucs’ playoff chances would drop to 33% if they lose to the Dolphins. A victory, on the other hand, would increase their postseason odds to 66%.

However, a loss in Miami could prove costly depending on what happens with the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. If the Buccaneers lose to the Dolphins and the Panthers beat or tie the Seahawks, the Bucs will be eliminated from playoff contention.

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Bucs, Panthers in fierce battle for playoff spot in the NFC South

The Panthers lead the NFC South heading into Week 17 with an 8-7 record, one game above the Bucs (7-8). With only one playoff spot available in the conference, winning the division is the only way Tampa can still make the 2026 NFL playoffs. If the Panthers finish Week 17 two games above the Buccaneers, it will be all she wrote for Tampa Bay’s playoff aspirations.

Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Week 18 will see the Bucs face the Panthers for the second time this year, shortly after Carolina’s Week 16 home win by three points. Depending on the Week 17 results, the 2025 NFL regular season finale could set up a thrilling game between division rivals with a playoff berth at stake.

What happens if Seahawks lose to Panthers today in Week 17 of 2025 NFL season?

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Having the Panthers as their final opponent means the Buccaneers control their own destiny, but first they need to get the job done against the Dolphins. Otherwise, they could be in for a rather meaningless Week 18 home game against their NFC South rivals.

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