There is no group in the 2026 World Cup as wide open as Group F, where Japan, the Netherlands, and Sweden can all still finish atop the standings. Only Tunisia have been eliminated, but everything else is still in play. When Japan go up against Sweden, it will be a must-watch showdown, while fans will also need to keep an eye on what happens between the Netherlands and Tunisia.
Japan enter the final matchday of the 2026 World Cup group stage with four points, thanks to their 2-2 draw against the Netherlands and 4-0 win over Tunisia. The Samurai Blue are level with the Oranje in both points and goal difference atop Group F. Because of the tiebreak rules in the 2026 World Cup, the advantage is currently on Netherlands’ side as they scored more goals overall than Japan. However, it will all come down to their respective finales against Sweden and Tunisia.
As for Sweden, they arrive at the game against Japan—which will be officiated by Salvadoran referee Ivan Barton—sitting on third place with three points in Group F. The Yellow and Blue make for an intriguing team, as they defeated Tunisia by a score of 5-1, only to lose by the same scoreline to the Netherlands. As a result, Sweden have scored six goals yet own a neutral goal difference.
What happens if Japan win vs. Sweden?
If Japan take down the Blue and Yellow on the final matchday of Group F, all eyes will turn to the game between the Netherlands and Tunisia. Japan would finish with seven points and officially punch their ticket to the round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup. Second place would be the lowest possible finish for Japan with a victory.
Daichi Kamada #15 of Japan during the FIFA World Cup 2026.
In order to finish in first place, Japan need— in addition to defeating Sweden—Tunisia to get at least one point against the Netherlands (i.e., win or tie). If Japan win while the Oranje drop points, then they will emerge as Group F winners and face Morocco, Group C’s runners-up, in the round of 32. Most importantly, Japan would avoid being red-hot Brazil’s next opponent in the 2026 World Cup.
In the event that the Netherlands win as well, then it will come down to who has the better overall goal difference, more goals scored, better conduct points, or, lastly, the higher FIFA ranking.
As for Sweden, a loss against Japan would keep them in third place. Even if Tunisia beat the Netherlands, the Eagles of Carthage can’t climb above them, as the Yellow and Blue hold the tiebreaker advantage thanks to their head-to-head win over Tunisia. With three points and a negative goal difference, Sweden might need some help to rank among the eight best third-place teams in the 2026 World Cup and advance to the round of 32.
What happens if Japan and Sweden draw?
A draw between Japan and Sweden would most likely clinch second place in Group F for Japan. That is, unless Tunisia shockingly defeat the Netherlands, in which case the Samurai Blue would finish atop Group F with five points, while the Oranje end up with four points, just like Sweden, and Tunisia with three.
If those results happen, Japan would win the group and play Morocco next, the Netherlands would finish second and play Brazil in the round of 32, while Sweden would most likely advance as one of the best third-place teams. The Oranje would finish above Sweden, despite being tied on four points, thanks to their head-to-head blowout victory over the Yellow and Blue.
Tunisia will finish last in the group regardless of whether they win, tie, or lose against the Netherlands. The Eagles of Carthage can only play spoiler to a third party’s celebration, but not their own.
What happens if Japan lose vs. Sweden?
If Sweden take down Japan on the final matchday, the Yellow and Blue will finish second in Group F with six points. The only way Sweden can finish first is if they win and Tunisia also win or tie against the Netherlands.
Japan will finish third in Group F with a loss to Sweden, unless the Netherlands lose to Tunisia by a bigger margin than the Samurai Blue do against the Yellow and Blue. If the Netherlands tie, then Japan will finish third with four points, as Sweden win the group and the Oranje come out as runners-up.
Still, with four points, Japan should finish among the eight best third-place teams and advance to the round of 32. Thus, not even a loss may be enough to eliminate Japan from the 2026 World Cup, and that same logic applies to Netherlands.
2026 World Cup Group F standings
| Pos. / Team | PTS | GP/GD (GF) |
| 1. Netherlands | 4 | 2/+4 (7) |
| 2. Japan | 4 | 2/+4 (6) |
| 3. Sweden | 3 | 2/0 (6) |
| 4. Tunisia (e) | 0 | 2/-8 (1) |
