Mexico have done it. For the first time since 1986, El Tri have won a FIFA World Cup knockout-stage game. They did so in a heated (despite the thunderstorm that delayed kickoff) showdown against Ecuador. Without Guillermo “Memo” Ochoa in the starting lineup, but with young Mexican goalkeeper Raul Rangel between the posts, Mexico have reached the Round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup.
Ecuador have been eliminated, whereas Mexico will stay at home. Up next, El Tri will face the winner of the Round of 32 game between England and DR Congo. Whoever prevails will travel down to The City of Palaces to take on the co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup at Estadio Azteca (renamed Mexico City Stadium for the competition). The Round of 16 matchup between Mexico and England/DR Congo will be held on July 5th at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Coming off their commanding win over Ecuador, Mexico look even further ahead in the locked 2026 World Cup bracket, Mexico can already start to imagine potential matchups and whom they might have to take down to reach the World Cup final. Needless to say, it’s an uphill battle, and Mexico are down to their last bullet in the chamber of Mexico City’s altitude. Still, Mexico are steadfast.
Mexico’s potential path to World Cup final
Mexico will go head to head with England or DR Congo in Mexico City. Although the Three Lions would be considered favorites against El Tri, Mexico have an ace up their sleeve that might tip the scales in their favor. That is their home-field advantage and the altitude (Mexico City is 2,200 meters—7,350 feet—above sea level). However, the Round of 16 will be the last stage played in Mexico at the 2026 World Cup.
Julian Quinones #16 of Mexico.
From the quarterfinals onward, the tournament will move entirely to the United States, and that will be no different if Mexico or Canada advance. For Mexico, reaching the quarterfinals would mean facing either Brazil or Norway in Miami, Florida (Hard Rock Stadium). If Mexico advance to the semifinals, they will face one of Argentina, Cape Verde, Australia, Egypt, Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia, or Ghana.
- Round of 16: vs England/ DR Congo
- Quarterfinals: vs Brazil/ Norway
- Semifinals: vs Argentina/ Cape Verde/ Australia/ Egypt/ Switzerland/ Algeria/ Colombia/ Ghana
- Final: vs. Canada/ Morocco/ France/ Paraguay/ Portugal/ Croatia/ Spain/ Austria/ USMNT/ Bosnia and Herzegovina/ Belgium/ Senegal
Mexico’s World Cup curse
Still, El Tri can’t get ahead of themselves. Not only have Mexico never won a FIFA World Cup, but the furthest they’ve ever gone has been the quarterfinals. Moreover, El Tri are carrying a hex that has followed them through the last 10 World Cups.
Mexico have been eliminated in the Round of 16 in seven of the last 10 World Cups. In 2022, they were knocked out in the group stage. In 1990, Mexico didn’t even qualify for the World Cup, and in 2026 (the tenth), they have the chance to finally get the monkey off their back. The last time Mexico advanced past the Round of 16 was in the 1986 World Cup.
| World Cup | Elimination |
| 1990 | Failed to qualify |
| 1994 | Round of 16 (on penalties vs Bulgaria) |
| 1998 | Round of 16 (2-1 loss vs Germany) |
| 2002 | Round of 16 (2-0 loss vs USMNT) |
| 2006 | Round of 16 (2-1 loss vs Argentina) |
| 2010 | Round of 16 (3-1 loss vs Argentina) |
| 2014 | Round of 16 (2-1 loss vs Netherlands) |
| 2018 | Round of 16 (2-0 loss vs Brazil) |
| 2022 | Group stage |
| 2026 |
Mexico’s dream World Cup path
It’s definitely a long shot, but there’s a scenario in which Mexico could eliminate England in the Round of 16, Brazil in the quarterfinals, Argentina in the semifinals, and defeat the U.S. Men’s National Team in the final to win the 2026 World Cup.
It would be the perfect revenge for Mexico’s heartbreaks over the years. However, it feels much more fitting as the ending to a fairy tale than a likely World Cup outcome.
Either way, Mexico are one win away from getting over the hump that has kept them from so much joy and brought them so much gloom over the years. Indeed, for a team that drew skepticism coming into the 2026 World Cup, without Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and after leaving Hirving “Chucky” Lozano off the roster, Mexico are on the verge of history. And the best part might be that Mexican fans at home can witness it with their own eyes, just as they did in 1970 and 1986.
